What's it REALLY worth?

[Silhouette]

This is thrown in the ring to see what sort of discussion it may get. I have said on my web site and I think most would agree "...the value of...poster bought (say, at an auction)... is always going to be worth exactly what you paid for it..."

Playing the Devil's Advocate I am going to suggest that what you pay at auction is NOT what it is worth nor can it be a guide for what it is worth because using an auction as a guide may give you what could be called false sense of economy.

Why?

"If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?" this is the philosophical riddle that raises questions regarding observation and knowledge of reality.

If there is only one bidder does the winning price mean THAT sets the value for others to judge by? We would all agree that if there is more than one bidder then the price will (probably) increase so is THAT the value by which we now benchmark that poster or is that really just the measure of the demand for it? And here's a mathematical question: does the final bid price of the item increase exponentially by the number of bidders?

I would suggest that because an auction does not regularly 'sell' the same item each week (or even each month) we can't use use auction prices to benchmark the value of the poster - I think all an auction value can do is tell us what someone may pay for it but it does not truly say what it is worth.

I've bought at auction, I've bought retail and I've bought in bulk from picture theatres but at all times the value I put on my posters for insurance purposes is the retail value I find out there and not the most recent winning auction value.

Food for thought or just the ravings of someone who has had two glasses of Shiraz and is feeling quite lucid...? 

[jayn_j]

Well, I never place a value based on one auction result.  That's the value of Bruce and Heritage's databases.  They give a good indication of trends and how often an item becomes available.

It does give a value, but you need to know how to read it.  If a certain poster has auctioned 5 times in the last two years for $60, $50, $175, $40 and $60, I would look at what made the high bid one special.  I would not decide the poster was worth $175.  Same with a single lowball bid.

I also see trends over the years, because of the time of the year, and around certain events.  I try to capitalize on them.

[Bruce]

Jay is spot on. It is like Olympic scoring. You throw out the high and the low and then average the rest, and you have a VAGUE idea of "value".

Of course, some databases include items that were never paid for or were "bought back" by the consignors, and they don't identify those, so that greatly diminishes their "value". Our eMoviePoster.com database ONLY contains results where the items were paid for IN CASH (no trades, no re-negotiated prices, etc).

Bruce

[jayn_j]

Here is a real world example.  National Lampoon's Vacation has come upon emovieposter as a 1 sheet 8 times in the last year.  There were two additional special posters I am not counting.  Prices were $26, 44, 61, 2, 15, 38, 20 and 32.

You then need to look at the high and low ones.  The $61 poster was rolled and described as VG-F.  Looking back, a rolled poster is very rare on this title, adding to the value.

The $2 one was heavily faded and generally weatherbeaten.  I was looking at the time, and passed on this one even at $2.  Only suitable to wrap fish.
The $20 one had a rating snipe and had been "fixed" with a marking pen.
The $15 one was described as having wrinkles, water stains and paper loss.

That leaves $26 (G-VG), $44 (VG), $38 (VG) and $32 (VG-F).  I would set my bid to try for $30 and go up to $40 on this poster (assuming folded and VG condition).  You will find this is the ballpark for eBay ones that actually sell.  A bit low for Heritage

[Disheveledamethyst]

As Bruce and Jay have explained, the value of a poster is essentially the average of available data minus the outliers, but even this method flawed and sometimes useless. Let's take my precious Australian Empire poster for example, shall we?

If you looked up the 1-Sheet, you'd see prices ranging from below one hundred to above one hundred, but never surpassing two hundred dollars. The most recent auction on eMovie sold the poster for $180. But, one must also take into account the rarity of the poster, because much of the sales data is half a decade old (if not closer to ten years). Considering how many more people use the internet than in 2003, and the fact that people like Thierry have been destroying them, the number of potential buyers and the number of available posters has increased and decreased respectively.

While there is no sales data to indicate the poster is "worth" that much, I can't get anybody to let go of their AUS Empire Strikes Back poster for less than 3x the value as indicated by the eMovie and Heritage archives. In this case the number doesn't matter, because the new factor isn't the sales history, it's the availability as dictated by those who hold them.

This poster could be worth a thousand dollars now. The values for all of our posters are completely artificial.

Even the daybill format of the poster. In Bruce's most recent daybill auction (last week?) a scribbled on an staple-holed version of the poster came up and it sold for $200, But the sales data for this poster never puts the value of the poster over a hundred dollars. So why all of a sudden has the value has increased 4x?

Because all memorabilia is worthless, and only commands a price a buyer is willing to pay. That's why there is a CineMasterpieces, because if people pay sticker, then that's the value of the poster.

[jayn_j]

That's why I mentioned trends over the years.  A lot of older material peaked in the late '90s/early 2000's and is worth less now.  OTOH, 80's and 90's material has gone up in value since then.

I generally discount selling prices more than 2 years old because of how the economy has affected the market.  If it is an uncommon poster, I would need to look at trends on comparables and factor that against the older selling prices.  Realistically though, I would probably just gut feel it if I couldn't find recent comparables.

[paul waines]

I haven't read all of this, but simply, "it's what someone will pay for it".

[quadbod]

+1 

[Silhouette]

The problem with auctions and trends (which most people seems to be using as their benchmarking tool) is that the one does not necessarily go hand in hand with the other. Yet you would naturally think it logical to argue supply and demand, the more there are on offer the less the price will be, ergo the less on offer the higher the price, but on the surface of it it not a good rule of thumb...

Take the one sheet The Sting - ignoring quality for the moment it appears at a glance (using Bruce's results again) the highest prices were reached in the years when the supply was at the best.

This presents the old chestnut, which came first the chicken or the egg? Does more demand create a greater supply hence higher prices or is it high supply creating a greater level of demand, therefore higher prices?

[AdamCarterJones]

To quote a few of my friends and my girlfriend, at the end of the day it's just paper and people like us collectors are generally crazy 
... I say it's an art form, which essentially it is.

As a mark of coincidence, one of my other friends (a major Bond poster collector in Europe), who I have just come off the phone from, said to me - When you have original movie posters hanging up next to Rembrandts and the like in museums, then what does that say about their value and worth to society?

There are some people who will be adamant their collection/poster is worth x amount of money, but as others have noted, it could be worth a lot less or even a lot more ...

[guest8]

The problem with auctions and trends (which most people seems to be using as their benchmarking tool) is that the one does not necessarily go hand in hand with the other. Yet you would naturally think it logical to argue supply and demand, the more there are on offer the less the price will be, ergo the less on offer the higher the price, but on the surface of it it not a good rule of thumb...

Take the one sheet The Sting - ignoring quality for the moment it appears at a glance (using Bruce's results again) the highest prices were reached in the years when the supply was at the best.

This presents the old chestnut, which came first the chicken or the egg? Does more demand create a greater supply hence higher prices or is it high supply creating a greater level of demand, therefore higher prices?

One scenario is .. If a poster hasnt sold in a long time and is somewhat sought after .. and one suddenly pops up for sale you will find they can go for a premium price because most people think .. "man these never come up! Id better get this one while i can!!!" Then the bidding wars rage and an all time high for that poster is reached. Then joe-someone else sees how much that poster sold for and says hey I dont even like mine I could sell it and get that much.. and so on .. maybe the one that sold at an all time high helps a handful more to surface .. and the price may level out and as if does the fewer people are tempted to sell theirs .. Thinking its better to wait until another dry spell and try and reach an all time record high sale price.

[Silhouette]

All in all very interesting and I think it's like anything collectible, pricing is highly subjective and there is no wrong answer. We will value an object based on what we will pay, this may or may not be the actual selling or final price of the item too.

I am willing to bet that the variations will be quite large too - so I am curious to see how big a variation we get, and  would like to run a survey if you want to play along please do.

The following are 10 INTERNATIONAL 1SH posters I own, you can assume all are in Fine condition, all are rolled and all single-sided. PM me the value you place on them, that is - if YOU wanted it what would you pay for it OR advise someone else to pay for it. I'll post the results in a few days (to protect the young and the innocent I won't post the names!). I'll bet we will be surprised with what we come up with...

No cheating!

Blade Runner (Director's Cut)   
Cinema Paradiso (vers 3)
Beauty and the Beast   (vers 1)
The Unforgiven   (Teaser with Clint - vers 1)
The Unforgiven   (vers 2)
True Romance (vers 2)
Lion King   (Teaser, Outcrop with Yellow Sun - vers 3)
Pulp Fiction   
Tombstone (vers 1)
Army of Darkness (vers 1)   

[jayn_j]

And this follows the subjective part, but frankly, few of those posters are on my gotta have list.  So to me, a few bucks each.

[Silhouette]

And this follows the subjective part, but frankly, few of those posters are on my gotta have list.  So to me, a few bucks each.

Exactly.

[jayn_j]

Not sure that's the question tough.  Its not what I will pay for a particular poster, it is kind of how to budget and decide how much you need to plan to bid.

All of these auctions put hundreds up at once, and they all close within a couple of hours.  This is where the tools and strategy come into play.  I find I am interested in say 10 posters at an auction, but can only spend $200.  Some close at 7, but others don't close until 8:30.  The database gives a rough idea on what to bid on the earlier items, so you will still have the reserves you need for the later item you really want.

Besides, I go bidding $5k on a Raiders regular release, it will end up in the post auction analysis thread.  Irrelevant that some other fool is bidding me up (besides you guys just admitted to playing that game ) 

[Zorba]

I haven't read all of this, but simply, "it's what someone will pay for it".

I agree.

I see the value of my posters like this.

If I "win?" a piece for $40 in an emovie or heritage auction it is worth less than that $40 since I was the high bidder. I know not everyone was watching but I do know no one else was willing to pay what I paid.

That works for me since I was not speculating, I was buying them for my one and only poster collecting client. Me.

[marklawd]

I disagree. What someone is willing to pay is not what something is worth. The more comparable evidence there is of recent sales the easier it is to arrive at a value. A more experienced collector will make adjustments for condition and desirability and assess other contributing factors such as how the poster was sold or if there was a "special purchaser" involved. I prefer to value within price ranges. Sometimes I knowingly overpay for a poster for convenience or because I place a premium on unfolded (usually folded) posters or those in exceptional condition. Sometimes I unknowingly overpay because I have not carried out prior research and perceive the poster to be rarer than it is.

Mark

[jayn_j]

Sounds like a difference in how we view our collections.  I see mine as there are a lot of posters I would like and how can I get the most out of a limited budget.  Others see it as there are posters they must own and will pay whatever is necessary to get the perfect copy.  Still others work simply on gut feel (the Ooooah, shiny! crowd)

As usual, one size does not fit all.  If it did, auctions wouldn't work.

[Zorba]

I disagree. What someone is willing to pay is not what something is worth. The more comparable evidence there is of recent sales the easier it is to arrive at a value. A more experienced collector will make adjustments for condition and desirability and assess other contributing factors such as how the poster was sold or if there was a "special purchaser" involved. I prefer to value within price ranges. Sometimes I knowingly overpay for a poster for convenience or because I place a premium on unfolded (usually folded) posters or those in exceptional condition. Sometimes I unknowingly overpay because I have not carried out prior research and perceive the poster to be rarer than it is.

Mark

I was speaking of how I look at the value of the posters I already own.

I am getting much better but at two years in but I still dont have a great handle on what something is going to go for on a given night. I am still often surprised and left sitting there scratching my head.

Looking back I frequently "over payed" and still do more than I should.

[oldposterho]

Not to get too woowoo, but did you really "overpay" if you paid what you thought was a fair price?  Methinks that would only be the case if you're treating your posters as a commodity, not a collection. 

I find it reassuring to know that there are those that bid up an item just to make the other fellow pay dearly, that is precisely why I'll only use a snipe program or bid at the last minute (in the unlikely event I actually remember to).  I refuse to leave a bid out there for murgatroyds to hammer at.

--Peter

[paul waines]

The Value of a Poster is still only worth what someone will pay for it.... Mark if you want to pay more for a poster, then that's what it's worth....to you..

That list of posters, I don't think I would pay over $10 for Any, sorry Silhouette,  but that is just what I will pay for modern....stuff. Someone may pay more, and that is what it's worth for that one off transaction. It's all about what it's worth on any given day...

You guys should stop worrying what something is worth, and wait to buy at a reasonable price. If more did, prices would come down. It's the constant "must have" that pushes prices up. If I want something thats expensive and the seller won't budge, I buy something else. Chances are if it's over priced they will still have it in several months time. If you go on the likes of Ebay the same sellers with inflated prices are listing the same old posters every Chancers Weekend, or free listing weekend as Ebay call it. While the sensible seller will lower the price until it sells.
     
Some dealer selling a poster for £200 doesn't make it worth £200!! if that was the case My King kong escapes Quad is worth £1,000,000...   as that is what some Pilock has it up for on Ebay. And I have two of them...Whoohoo.   

[jayn_j]

I think some of you who are saying "whatever someone wants to pay for it" are either missing the point, or are ready to unload a pile of crap posters 

You do need to get an idea of general worth.  I like musicals.  I want a copy of A Chorus Line.  Should I pay $2k for it because a copy of Singin in the Rain recently went for that price?  Of course not.  The point is that the value of an item to me may be higher or lower, but there is still an accepted market value.  It may be a range of values.  Value to me may be higher than market, but someone looking to buy needs to be aware of recent prices.  If the poster comes up every few weeks or months, only a newbie would pay significantly more than the going rate to get it at this auction.

Most everyone here knows that, or there wouldn't be the mid-auction/post-auction "What were they thinking" threads.

[guest8]

This sounds somewhat similar to a thread I started a while back and it seems to be ending in about the same way .. Sorry David/Jay but youre chasing your tails with this topic .. Everyone will stick to their mantra of "its worth what someones willing to pay" and ignore the blatant fact that there is a "fair market value" for posters .. We may pay more or less but the overall market value is out there if one is willing to do the research.

[Zorba]

Not to get too woowoo, but did you really "overpay" if you paid what you thought was a fair price?  Methinks that would only be the case if you're treating your posters as a commodity, not a collection. 

I find it reassuring to know that there are those that bid up an item just to make the other fellow pay dearly, that is precisely why I'll only use a snipe program or bid at the last minute (in the unlikely event I actually remember to).  I refuse to leave a bid out there for murgatroyds to hammer at.

--Peter

I have NOT bought a single poster to sell.

By overpay I meant as in being a dumbass newb 

As I learned more I saw that many that I own could have been attained for less. Some for FAR less but I just didnt know better. Experience is a great teacher if you let it.

Bidding wars I avoid  and the driving the price up game? Dont get it . Sorry.

[marklawd]

I buy original vintage posters (as opposed to reprints) anticipating that I will get all or most of what I paid for them back if and when I come to sell. If I have bought wisely or if I am lucky I will get more than I paid for some.

If I had no consideration for true market value and I simply liked the artwork on a poster I would be foolish to spend $1000 on an original if I could buy an identical reprint for $10 to frame and put on the wall. I can allow myself to disregard value with new releases but not with more costly vintage or rare material.

Mark