Author Topic: Mid-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev.... (Read 2203752 times)

Dread_Pirate_Mel · « **Reply #2750 on:** May 29, 2012, 10:10:58 PM »

You guys are crazy. That Barbarella Style B is the quintessence of cool and what this hobby is all about. My copy is permanently enshrined on my wall.

Something I won't ever own....

CSM · « **Reply #2751 on:** May 29, 2012, 10:43:16 PM »

Yeah Mel you should probably concentrate on finding a flesh and blood bride first before a paper one...

eatbrie · « **Reply #2752 on:** May 29, 2012, 10:46:27 PM »

Quote from: Dread_Pirate_Mel on May 29, 2012, 10:10:58 PM

You guys are crazy. That Barbarella Style B is the quintessence of cool and what this hobby is all about. My copy is permanently enshrined on my wall.

Agreed. For $200. What that guy, 70mmWidescreen, bought it for is absurd, IMO. But then again, what the guy spends on posters is absurd. I think he is related to Jaws1975 or Bullitt1968. I see the same pattern of overspending on posters. I am not impressed by the money he showers Bruce with, I'm more impressed by the fact that he constantly pays more on posters than what they are worth.

T

110x75 · « **Reply #2753 on:** May 29, 2012, 10:51:53 PM »

Quote from: eatbrie on May 29, 2012, 10:46:27 PM

I'm more impressed by the fact that he constantly pays more on posters than what they are worth.

wich is the opposite of what I try to do...

Dread_Pirate_Mel · « **Reply #2754 on:** May 30, 2012, 01:16:22 AM »

Quote from: eatbrie on May 29, 2012, 10:46:27 PM

Agreed. For $200. What that guy, 70mmWidescreen, bought it for is absurd, IMO. But then again, what the guy spends on posters is absurd. I think he is related to Jaws1975 or Bullitt1968. I see the same pattern of overspending on posters. I am not impressed by the money he showers Bruce with, I'm more impressed by the fact that he constantly pays more on posters than what they are worth.

T

Your "worth" valuation is way off for this one. I'd guesstimate there are fewer than 20 of the Style Bs still around and the demand vastly exceeds the supply. They've been consistently auctioning for $600 - $1000 (depending on condition) at Heritage and Christie's for the last ten years. I paid $1,075 for mine (NM condition) and it was worth every penny. This particular one sold tonight may have been a bit excessive because it has heavy foldlines but it was not far off.

Ari · « **Reply #2755 on:** May 30, 2012, 01:27:27 AM »

curious how you came up with a figure of approx 20?

crowzilla · « **Reply #2756 on:** May 30, 2012, 02:23:36 AM »

I am curious about that also. I know of one dealer who purchased 6 of them a few years ago in a bulk lot and I certainly never believed he had 30% of the known copies.

Ari · « **Reply #2757 on:** May 30, 2012, 02:32:13 AM »

maybe the new estimate is 26?

Dread_Pirate_Mel · « **Reply #2758 on:** May 30, 2012, 07:45:51 AM »

It's been reported that there are only six 40x60 Barbarellas extant and they come up for auction maybe once a year. These Style Bs come up for auction twice a year or so, so I figure not many are floating around out there since, as a general matter, the frequency of sales correlates with the quantity. Heritage has described it as "extremely" and "incredibly" scarce. Perhaps some hyperbole but not too much. Certainly the Style A is far more common.

eatbrie · « **Reply #2759 on:** May 30, 2012, 11:42:46 AM »

Mel, this poster is worth $200 to me. I like it, but not enough to spend a penny more. $900 is outrageous to me, but hey, to each his own.

And 20? What is that? A lot of collectors own this poster. They're just sitting on them for whatever reason. The fact that these posters come up for sale twice a year, as you say, means that there are way more than 20 floating around. I'd say at least 122. And Heritage can put whatever they want in their auction description... They're selling the damn thing. Of course, it's super duper rare. And who reported that there are only 6 40x60 Barbarellas left? Who the fuck knows?

T

eatbrie · « **Reply #2760 on:** May 30, 2012, 11:52:19 AM »

Let me give you another example. I bought this poster for $300 last year. So did another member of this forum who led me to it.

How many copies of this poster do you think there are left? I don't see it popping for auction very often. I checked Bruce and HA's auctions and it looks like it sells for above $1k. Is it worth $1k? I don't think so. It is worth whatever you find it at. I would have not spent more than I did on it, and ultimately I ended up spending what I wanted to spend. Rare or not, I found it at my price.

T

CSM · « **Reply #2761 on:** May 30, 2012, 11:52:36 AM »

Quote from: eatbrie on May 30, 2012, 11:42:46 AM

Who the fuck knows?

T

Professor Powers, of course!

CSM · « **Reply #2762 on:** May 30, 2012, 11:53:24 AM »

Quote from: eatbrie on May 30, 2012, 11:52:19 AM

Let me give you another example. I bought this poster for $300 last year. So did another member of this forum who led me to it.

How many copies of this poster do you think there are left? I don't see it popping for auction very often. I checked Bruce and HA's auctions and it looks like it sells for above $1k. Is it worth $1k? I don't think so. It is worth whatever you find it at. I would have not spent more than I did on it, and ultimately I ended up spending what I wanted to spend. Rare or not, I found it.

T

And I wouldn't have spent more than $20 on it. So there I go enforcing your point

crowzilla · « **Reply #2763 on:** May 30, 2012, 11:58:22 AM »

Quote from: Dread_Pirate_Mel on May 30, 2012, 07:45:51 AM

It's been reported that there are only six 40x60 Barbarellas extant and they come up for auction maybe once a year. These Style Bs come up for auction twice a year or so, so I figure not many are floating around out there since, as a general matter, the frequency of sales correlates with the quantity. Heritage has described it as "extremely" and "incredibly" scarce. Perhaps some hyperbole but not too much. Certainly the Style A is far more common.

Even Todd Spoor's book on 30x40s/40x60s says there are 8 of the Barbarella's known and cataloged 22 times the style B came to auction in the prior 20 years and I think he estimated most of his numbers pretty low, probably closer to something like 2 dozen or so on the 40x60s and T is correct on 100+ for the style B (which still makes it pretty rare for a 60s one-sheet).

If there were really only six of the 40x60s known, you just wouldn't see it come up for sale every year. Most collectors buy and hold, not buy and flip, so when they get something cool like that they are far more likely to hang onto it for a while.

Charlie · « **Reply #2764 on:** May 30, 2012, 11:58:36 AM »

I am sure Dave has a roll of them. Or Rick has 3 or 4 copies... One thing I think we get caught up on is trying to take inventory on posters by just assessing what we see on the forum, internet, and auction sites... There are so many collectors and dealers that don't even do the internet. For example my local guy has stashes of Japanese, French, Italians that he won't even let me see... Every once in a while he pulls out a four or five star poster to entice me... And he isn't on the internet. He may be consigning but maybe not... There is also a guy out in Katy (west of Houston) that has a web site but only buy and sells through that one point. I know he has almost every Eastwood and picked up a Prince and the Show Girl one day when I was visiting... Then not to mention what has been tossed or stored in closets, barns, warehouse, storage lockers, etc just waiting to be found. (The idea of this excites me to no end)...

I think inventory numbers are useless, unless given from a studio or something...

eatbrie · « **Reply #2765 on:** May 30, 2012, 12:08:28 PM »

Quote from: CSM on May 30, 2012, 11:53:24 AM

And I wouldn't have spent more than $20 on it. So there I go enforcing your point

What do you mean? Don't you know there are only 12 left in the world? $20 when it sold for $2k at Heritage? What's wrong with you!

Sorry Mel, but as much as I appreciate your constant efforts towards this hobby, a lot of them quite amazing, this is a little bit funny.

T

erik1925 · « **Reply #2766 on:** May 30, 2012, 12:53:02 PM »

This is always an interesting topic, and it has been discussed in other threads, when rarity comes into question. The likely reality is, no one can ever know, for sure, how many copies of a certain poster exist. Sure, there are copies that will appear for auction, or sale, but, as T said, there are also collectors who own copies who have no intention of selling anytime soon.

So if a certain style poster (whether it be Barbarella or any another) is popping up a couple times a year for auction, it would appear to be very unlikely that only 20 copies would exist, in its entirety. This appears as if the same handful of posters are flipped time and again, and while some copies (of any poster are), not all will be. Since no one knows for certain how many copies of Any poster truly exist (and this is very different than "Known To Exist"), to put a concrete, finite number on one is a guess or opinion at best, regardless of how rare it is described to be.

Even the 4 copies of the Style F Dracula OS are described as "only known copies." The Berwick Discovery showed that there are always others out there, potentially waiting to be re-discovered.

CineMasterpieces · « **Reply #2767 on:** May 30, 2012, 04:43:35 PM »

Charlie, I wish we had a roll of them!

We did have a rolled, never folded style B awhile back. Could it be the only rolled never folded one on earth?

We do have one of the psychedelic 40x60's in stock. I'm actually planning on framing it for our new game room.

Charlie · « **Reply #2768 on:** May 30, 2012, 04:50:41 PM »

Quote from: CineMasterpieces on May 30, 2012, 04:43:35 PM

Charlie, I wish we had a roll of them!

Now that one may be worth the 1K or perhaps 2... Nice Dave - What did it go for?

CSM · « **Reply #2769 on:** May 30, 2012, 05:09:05 PM »

Quote from: Charlie on May 30, 2012, 04:50:41 PM

Now that one may be worth the 1K or perhaps 2... Nice Dave - What did it go for?

Probably 5 Pretty Woman one sheet's worth

erik1925 · « **Reply #2770 on:** May 30, 2012, 05:14:03 PM »

Quote from: CSM on May 30, 2012, 05:09:05 PM

Probably 5 Pretty Woman one sheet' worth

eatbrie · « **Reply #2771 on:** May 30, 2012, 05:15:16 PM »

Quote from: CSM on May 30, 2012, 05:09:05 PM

Probably 5 Pretty Woman one sheet' worth

Ah Ah Ah... That Pretty Woman thing will follow Dave to his grave. I don't think we can ever forget it. Good times!

T

Dread_Pirate_Mel · « **Reply #2772 on:** May 30, 2012, 06:29:31 PM »

I agree we can't know precisely how many are left but if there were 100 it seems, given the normal turnover of posters (few collectors are lifers and most keep a poster only for a few years before reselling) they would show up much more often than they do. Maybe 20 is a low estimate but it surely can't be more than 50. Only two dealers are selling the Style B right now (that I can find).

I would guess the average turnover for higher-level posters is 7 years.

MoviePosterBid.com · « **Reply #2773 on:** May 30, 2012, 07:33:24 PM »

Quote from: Dread_Pirate_Mel on May 30, 2012, 06:29:31 PM

I would guess the average turnover for higher-level posters is 7 years.

Mel, from longtime experience I can tell you the average turnover for collections is approx 15-20 years.
However there are people who regularly turn over their collections to fund newer purchases, while at the same time there are quite a number of people who don't move anything out until they're coming to the end of their years, excepting when they do that rare trade of something they own for something the other guy owns.

concerning the Barbarella B, I'd have to say there are most likely 100-200 or maybe even more of them extant. the majority of copies will not turn over for a very long time and I have no doubt people like Loce have multiple copies that are never sold as they don't need to sell them, having so much other stuff to sell.

Dread_Pirate_Mel · « **Reply #2774 on:** May 30, 2012, 08:06:10 PM »

We cannot precisely know:

(1) the quantity originally printed
(2) the "churn" rate
(3) the number of private transactions

So the question is whether you can correctly estimate the number of extant copies of a particular poster if you only know the number of public sales from three prominent auctioneers: Heritage, Christies and Emovie.

Take the example of "This Gun For Hire" one sheet. We know there have been 10 sales in the last 10 years from Heritage (7), Emovie (1), and Christie's (2).

By contrast, there have been 60 sales of "Forbidden Planet." Can we assume that there are roughly six times more extant FP posters?

News:

Author Topic: Mid-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev.... (Read 2203752 times)

Dread_Pirate_Mel

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Charlie

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Dread_Pirate_Mel

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