Mid-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....

[Dread_Pirate_Mel]

Folded ET advance posters have sold in the $460 - $600 range at Heritage.  (The first three are rolled).



So $499 sounds about right - or even a bit high - for this poster, especially since the front shows discoloration and the back shows rippling or moisture damage (I've correct the lighting on the seller's pic):

[Harry Caul]

In the end, the market dictates value not past sales results...

I agree with this 100%.  Most of what we know about pricing has come from the peak of the market.  Some posters will clearly hold their value better than others, but I think we are seeing nearly everything pull back from their 2007/2008 prices...

[CSM]

I agree with this 100%.  Most of what we know about pricing has come from the peak of the market.  Some posters will clearly hold their value better than others, but I think we are seeing nearly everything pull back from their 2007/2008 prices...

Just like certain...ummm...Bogart posters

[Harry Caul]

Which is why it is always best to judge value based on 1980's prices

[MoviePosterBid.com]

"while Bruce may have trumpeted his results of last week, the reality is that even those results sucked"
Rich, Rich, Rich.
Untrue and beneath you. Those results from other auctions you love to quote likely were never paid for, or were made by a house bidder, or were a consignor buying back their own items.
My results (good and bad) were the results of real bidders bidding against real bidders (just as your results are). They may have been lower than some imaginary results in some cases, but in many other cases they were much higher.
Bruce

bruce, I'm not dogging your auctions. You know me better than that. I'm just saying.. the economy sucks and it is even reflected in your results recently. For instance, the Babe Comes Home insert. Morrie had it in his auction and Sean had bid over $15,000, but it did not meet the reserve (a wild $40k). So there is one.

I Walked With a Zombie .. that size is one of the most difficult to find on that title and one of the most desirable because it has a different image and (again) Sean has sold it for $4k, Heritage has never sold it and last time you sold it it was a considerably lesser copy for $3076 in 2007

those are just two examples.. after the auctions, I actually spot checked a number of items Bruce. Not to see how you were doing - but how the market was doing. Your auctions are great, and you took in lots of money. Some stuff was high, some low. Alot was surprisingly lower than it should have been because the quality of those items or scarcity meant they should have sold for more. Val Lewton for one. the interest in his films is at an all time high I think, so the Zombie insert surprised me as a very reasonable price for the buyer. The Babe Comes Home, like the Universal insert (can't remember if it was house of frank or Drac.. frank right?) both probably suffered from fatigue. Babe more than the other. Many Babe Comes Home posters of various sizes have both disappointed in recent years and been offered too much, and it probably whacked that down some. For my money, I think the insert is the best poster on the title with that fantastic image of Babe in a slugger position.

but don't think I was slamming you Bruce.. you know better, though maybe I should have said "some of Bruce's results.. blah blah"

Rich

[Bruce]

Thanks for clarifying Rich. Honest no reserve auctions will ALWAYS have lower prices overall than auctions with high reserves, mysterious maxed bids, etc.

But they also will have a ZERO percent pass rate, as opposed to the hundreds of passes in those other auctions.

But I can't help noticing you didn't mention that Lawrence of Arabia. If my price "sucked" then what was those other guy's result which was half mine three weeks before?

Bruce

[eatbrie]

the ET poster is most certainly NOT a high starting bid

yes, it's more than 99 cents, but that poster is exceedingly rare and retail, in that condition is at least $700-800

for such a rare poster, I think the seller is being reasonably fair (for a non-99 cent starting bid)

To me, that poster is worth absolutely nothing.  If the picture I see on the seller's site is the best picture he could post, the poster is completely discolored.  The folds don't bother me (they never do), but discoloration is a no-no.  This poster is a must with the right colors, and can certainly reach $700-800 ($1,000 + for the rolled version), but not in this condition.

T

[MoviePosterBid.com]

Thanks for clarifying Rich. Honest no reserve auctions will ALWAYS have lower prices overall than auctions with high reserves, mysterious maxed bids, etc.

But they also will have a ZERO percent pass rate, as opposed to the hundreds of passes in those other auctions.

But I can't help noticing you didn't mention that Lawrence of Arabia. If my price "sucked" then what was those other guy's result which was half mine three weeks before?

Bruce

that was a great result. Myself, I don't see it with that poster. I think it's like BAT - a bit overpriced.
of course, I only had bid on 1 item that particular night in your auction and of course, it went for more than the last few that sold

 

[MoviePosterBid.com]

oh.. and I didn't win it

[MoviePosterBid.com]

Mel.. you need to include dates on sales if you want to use them for debate, especially as we know many of those Heritage results go back 6-8 years

and again concering this prior statement:
In the end, the market dictates value not past sales results...

again - yes - and no. the truth is somewhere in the middle

an auction gets the best result ON THAT DAY. It is a sale that says "I'm selling today, no matter what the price, at this very minute". It is a one-dimensional sale. The market is three-dimensional. Different dealers get different results - even on the same day and in the same venue. Do you doubt that Dave wouldn't have sold that poster for a good price with his following and if the economy was robust, again it's a different story. The poster could sell for more tomorrow in the same venue it was listed today - it happens alot on fleaBay. Recently, I forgot to bid on an item at $39.99. it relisted, my high bid wound up being $86 and I didn't win it. But again - that's in an auction.

You go to someone's store or gallery, the prices are wildly different. They are all correct for their market

[50s]

and again concering this prior statement:
In the end, the market dictates value not past sales results...

again - yes - and no. the truth is somewhere in the middle

I reckon the market is influenced by past sales results. I know I have seen a poster I liked, thought, I reckon a winning bid would be say, $200, then looked up sales results that said $450, so instead max bid $650. I do that adjustment all the time... Only in this climate I'd put down $400 or $500... so, past sales results definately have some influence in the market in which I swim, else I would be bidding $200 and losing... Theres always someone in the pot doing an upward revision I suspect.

That is why I am a believer its in emovieposters interest to keep the sales database accessible, so newbies can find out what they really need to put down for quality posters. 1million hits on the database is not because it is of little use. It is a fundamental tool for me in setting my bids.

[Bruce]

Thanks for the kind words. But you made a typo. It hasn't had one million hits, but rather ELEVEN million hits in the past five years (since we last had a major update).

AND WE ARE NOW CLOSE TO UNVEILING OUR GIGANTIC UPDATE, WHERE WE FINALLY MERGE OUR SALES RESULTS DATABASE WITH OUR IMAGE ARCHIVE!

Bruce

[Harry Caul]

I reckon the market is influenced by past sales results. I know I have seen a poster I liked, thought, I reckon a winning bid would be say, $200, then looked up sales results that said $450, so instead max bid $650. I do that adjustment all the time... Only in this climate I'd put down $400 or $500... so, past sales results definately have some influence in the market in which I swim, else I would be bidding $200 and losing... Theres always someone in the pot doing an upward revision I suspect.

And *that* right there is exactly what auction houses like Heritage* and Christie's* are hoping for!  If a previous sale is listed in the archives at $450, that means that the actual high bid was at least 20% less ($360) and the seller probably only received 80% of that bid ($288) after consignment fees, listing fees, marketing fees, insurance, catalog fees, etc...

If you (and at least one other person) see the $450 result and believe you'll need to spend $650 to get it... well that is why the next result for the archive will be $780

Now 50s, I'm not saying that *you* personally do not factor all those fees into your bids... I think most knowledgeable buyers do (or should).  However, there are a lot of casual buyers out there who can easily get seduced by archive prices.  All it takes is two!



* Before Bruce or Rich chime in, eMovie and MPB of course do not charge buyer premiums and they should be commended for it.

[50s]

Thanks for the kind words. But you made a typo. It hasn't had one million hits, but rather ELEVEN million hits in the past five years (since we last had a major update).

AND WE ARE NOW CLOSE TO UNVEILING OUR GIGANTIC UPDATE, WHERE WE FINALLY MERGE OUR SALES RESULTS DATABASE WITH OUR IMAGE ARCHIVE!

Yeah, that is long overdue - good move. That should reduce load on your server, and hopefully makes searches that bit quicker too.

I'm guessing it is all set up now for pay per view?! ;-)

BTW is that search progress bar accurate... seems to start 2/3's into the search and last the same amount of time? Obviously I spend too much time looking at certain beige coloured web pages.

Surprised you didnt mention the 44million page views on the image archive. 

[Dread_Pirate_Mel]

Mel.. you need to include dates on sales if you want to use them for debate, especially as we know many of those Heritage results go back 6-8 years

Some of those Heritage prices are from a few years ago but the $597 sale is for a VF/F (not LB) poster from three months ago.   I also checked Emovie, which has sold in the same ballpark price range, with linen-backed posters going for more.

[MoviePosterBid.com]

* Before Bruce or Rich chime in, eMovie and MPB of course do not charge buyer premiums and they should be commended for it.

Harry.. there are reasons for this

1) Neither one of us is really a "stand alone auction house"
2) Neither one of us has a need to shadow who the consignment % comes from

keep in mind, that doesn't mean I disagree with Heritage or Sothebys of Christies etc's business models. They have one model, Bruce and I have another. Something that people don't realize:
 buyer's premiums really are not paid by buyers - they're paid by consignors as a hidden fee.

and also Harry.. thanks for the shout out



Rich

[Bruce]

What IS a stand-alone auction, anyway? But if it requires buyers premiums I want no part of it!

Bruce

[MoviePosterBid.com]

yuo want no part of it

[Bruce]

Was "Dewey, Cheatem & Howe" a fictitious law firm or a "stand-alone auction"?



Bruce

[MoviePosterBid.com]

Was "Dewey, Cheatem & Howe" a fictitious law firm or a "stand-alone auction"?
Bruce

you query the wrong person.. you need to ask Carson Cockran

[Bruce]

Someone was posting about the S2 re-creations, and buying one if one goes cheap. Well we have four closing in a few hours, and one IS currently really cheap!

5f002 INVISIBLE MAN S2 recreation 1sh '98 James Whale, H.G. Wells, catch me if you can teaser art!

http://auctions.emovieposter.com/Bidding.taf?_function=detail&Auction_uid1=1896356

Bruce

[guest8]

Ohh .. Stout .. Blade Runner Variant .. I couldnt imagine paying this much though !!
http://cgi.ebay.com/Tyler-Stout-BLADE-RUNNER-VARIANT-Alamo-Drafthouse-RARE-/130421435080?pt=Art_Prints

[jpicken]

I really did like this movie when I saw it tonight, but WTF?

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=220656711379

[Neo]

I really did like this movie when I saw it tonight, but WTF?

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=220656711379

I saw the movie a few days ago, and it was definitely unique.  It was an ambitious film, and achieved what it was trying to (IMO) and has the potential to be a classic that a lot of people will look back on and remember seeing.  

That is a cool design for the poster, although I prefer the lenticular  .  One sold on Ebay a week ago http://cgi.ebay.com/SCOTT-PILGRIM-VS-WORLD-MOVIE-POSTER-LENTICULAR-3D-/300453940462?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0  

[guest8]

My guess is a lot of people liked the film and think its going t have a huge draw on the market place when just like any new film they sell strong at 1st and if youre lucky 1% of those retain maybe half the value that they brought during their peak sales times while the movie was in theaters.