Author Topic: The Box Office Thread  (Read 84253 times)

Offline eatbrie

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Re: How many movies will Avengers kill at the US BO?
« Reply #25 on: May 22, 2012, 06:05:15 PM »
How many movies will Avengers kill at the US BO?

One quote should have been enough.  I quoted 5 sources just for the heck of it. 

And by the way, Chris the Avenger, "turning all competitors into casualties of war" pretty much sums it up, doesn't it?

T
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Offline CSM

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Re: How many movies will Avengers kill at the US BO?
« Reply #26 on: May 22, 2012, 07:51:55 PM »
How many movies will Avengers kill at the US BO?

One quote should have been enough.  I quoted 5 sources just for the heck of it. 

And by the way, Chris the Avenger, "turning all competitors into casualties of war" pretty much sums it up, doesn't it?

T

I'd say I am more of a DC man but I'd be lying pretty blatantly.

But I am happy to be a member of a super hero team capable of destroying any movies' box office potential regardless of how obviously shitty it is likely to be :)
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Offline brude

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Re: How many movies will Avengers kill at the US BO?
« Reply #27 on: May 22, 2012, 08:06:18 PM »
  What a great film  thumbup

Dread_Pirate_Mel

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Re: How many movies will Avengers kill at the US BO?
« Reply #28 on: May 22, 2012, 08:45:26 PM »
Battleship did have the worst trailer I've ever seen.  Looked absolutely moronic and had nothing to do with the board game.




Offline archie leach

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Re: How many movies will Avengers kill at the US BO?
« Reply #29 on: May 22, 2012, 11:43:59 PM »
Since the words of someone who's been working in the Industry for 20 years haven't been able to reach out to you and since arguing is futile, I thought I'd post comments from leading Box office publication and websites. 

Of course, they could all be wrong, given your extensive knowledge on the matter.

You're not the only one with '20 years in the industry' around here (well, nearly).  Just because my experience is on the exhibition side, doesn't mean that I don't have a solid understanding of the marketplace.  I've spent a good chunk of time over the last five years studying this exact subject for a client.

Quote
One quote should have been enough.  I quoted 5 sources just for the heck of it. 


Why?  Five 'sources' parroting that same line mean nothing.  Chris already pointed out the last two, but I'll comment on the others...

Daily Variety:

As it stands, the prospect of a three-figure domestic cume for "Battleship" is all but dead in the water.  "Avengers" gets some credit for that: Disney's mammoth hit cruised to its third consecutive domestic win, dropping just 47% for a weekend take of $55.1 million.

This weekend marks the second in which "Avengers" has wrecked major openings (the other victim was "Dark Shadows"). "Battleship" was expected to gross this weekend $35 million-$40 million -- a paltry projection to begin with for an expensive project.


Boxoffice Mojo:

'Battleship' Drowns Under Weight of 'Avengers' 

In this case, though, the real nail in the coffin was The Avengers—audiences had and continued to turn out in droves to see the legendary superhero team prevent aliens from leveling Manhattan, and Battleship's aliens-at-sea premise really had no chance of competing.
They are both ascribing cause and effect not in evidence, based on this 'expected 35-40 mil gross'.  There was plenty of capacity and potential audience available for Battleship.  If it had been any good or had positive buzz of any kind, then it would have made more money.

Quote

Hollywood Reporter:

With The Avengers still storming the marketplace, observers knew that Universal and Hasbro's Battleship would come in on the more modest side ($35 million to $40 million), but no one expected it to come in at such a low level after making $226 million overseas.

Only anyone who saw the trailer... or followed any of the highly negative pre-release buzz in the U.S... beyond that, yeah, nooooobody expected it to sink...

Offline Ari

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Re: How many movies will Avengers kill at the US BO?
« Reply #30 on: May 22, 2012, 11:50:10 PM »
Most of myfriends on a trash film forum I frequent loved battleship, which says something.
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Offline eatbrie

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Re: How many movies will Avengers kill at the US BO?
« Reply #31 on: May 23, 2012, 12:19:15 AM »
You're not the only one with '20 years in the industry' around here (well, nearly).  Just because my experience is on the exhibition side, doesn't mean that I don't have a solid understanding of the marketplace.  I've spent a good chunk of time over the last five years studying this exact subject for a client.
 

Why?  Five 'sources' parroting that same line mean nothing.  Chris already pointed out the last two, but I'll comment on the others...
They are both ascribing cause and effect not in evidence, based on this 'expected 35-40 mil gross'.  There was plenty of capacity and potential audience available for Battleship.  If it had been any good or had positive buzz of any kind, then it would have made more money.
 
Only anyone who saw the trailer... or followed any of the highly negative pre-release buzz in the U.S... beyond that, yeah, nooooobody expected it to sink...


Really?  Wow!  I just posted those quotes to prove a point that is so obviously true it's not even worth debating (at least to anyone on my side of the business), but I see it is immensely important for you to be right, so I will let it go.  There is no point going on and on and on on a subject that is really not that interesting.  I actually never thought that my initial comment would be up to so much arguing.  I'm a little baffled.  But so be it.
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Offline Ari

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Re: How many movies will Avengers kill at the US BO?
« Reply #32 on: May 23, 2012, 01:29:24 AM »
yeah the real fight should be who would win between Smurfs and Tin Tin.
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Offline archie leach

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Re: How many movies will Avengers kill at the US BO?
« Reply #33 on: May 23, 2012, 02:26:03 AM »
yeah the real fight should be who would win between Smurfs and Tin Tin.

I would watch this...


Really?  Wow!  I just posted those quotes to prove a point that is so obviously true it's not even worth debating (at least to anyone on my side of the business), but I see it is immensely important for you to be right, so I will let it go.  There is no point going on and on and on on a subject that is really not that interesting.  I actually never thought that my initial comment would be up to so much arguing.  I'm a little baffled.  But so be it.

It's called groupthink.  It's not new inside the closed walls of Hollywood.  Think of baseball before Moneyball... 

And I'm not the one who is so unwilling to accept the possibility that I might be wrong or so insecure in my position that I need to quote five sources, such as they are, for backup... It's obviously very important to you, particularly as you continue to denigrate without consideration, which is your prerogative, however it's unfortunate.

Offline archie leach

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Re: How many movies will Avengers kill at the US BO?
« Reply #34 on: May 23, 2012, 02:41:49 AM »
Battleship did have the worst trailer I've ever seen.  Looked absolutely moronic and had nothing to do with the board game.





[Spoiler]They didn't even use the phrase 'You sank my Battleship'...[/spoiler]

Offline Neo

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Re: How many movies will Avengers kill at the US BO?
« Reply #35 on: May 23, 2012, 11:39:30 PM »

I'm a little baffled.


+1

Considering the incredible praise from everyone I've heard about The Avengers, I would say that its success surely had a huge impact on other movies' box office numbers.

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Re: How many movies will Avengers kill at the US BO?
« Reply #36 on: May 24, 2012, 02:00:49 AM »
Battleship wold have made more money, but it probably would not have made a profit in the US as the trailers were dreadful and the concept is ridiculous, if not recycled. The Avengers most definitely did pull away many millions from the movie regardless


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Offline archie leach

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Re: How many movies will Avengers kill at the US BO?
« Reply #37 on: May 24, 2012, 02:31:48 AM »
+1

Considering the incredible praise from everyone I've heard about The Avengers, I would say that its success surely had a huge impact on other movies' box office numbers.

It had a huge impact on The Avengers number itself.  It also certainly had some impact on other films in release, but not to the point of being the sole reason why these other films did not become hits.

It simply makes a better story for all those involved to turn the weekly B.O. numbers into a prize fight...

Offline Neo

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Re: How many movies will Avengers kill at the US BO?
« Reply #38 on: May 24, 2012, 03:10:51 AM »
Archie, I understand that many times there is more than one factor in the equation.  In this case, The Avengers is on another level in terms of people praising it, compared to the vast majority of movies.  Like Rich said, regardless of how bad many think Battleship is, The Avengers took away millions from it.  To not look at that factor and claim that the box office numbers story is a prize fight is not realistic.

Offline Tob

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Re: How many movies will Avengers kill at the US BO?
« Reply #39 on: May 24, 2012, 07:47:17 AM »
Battleship came out a couple of weeks earlier than The Avengers in the UK and took a very mediocre amount of money...I'd suggest because it looks awful and the word of mouth was poor.

I would think The Avengers took money from it in the US (I know which I'd pay to see given the choice), but I doubt Battleship would have been a hit had The Avengers not existed.  

I should qualify the above thoughts by saying I have zero years experience in the 'biz  ;D
« Last Edit: May 24, 2012, 07:51:26 AM by Tob »

Offline archie leach

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Re: How many movies will Avengers kill at the US BO?
« Reply #40 on: May 24, 2012, 12:25:11 PM »
Archie, I understand that many times there is more than one factor in the equation.  In this case, The Avengers is on another level in terms of people praising it, compared to the vast majority of movies.  Like Rich said, regardless of how bad many think Battleship is, The Avengers took away millions from it.  To not look at that factor and claim that the box office numbers story is a prize fight is not realistic.

The praise for The Avengers, while very strong, is not unprecendented by any means, particularly on a relative basis.  I would also suggest that the complete lack of interesting (no matter how you define it) competition has made The Avengers stand out even more in comparison than it otherwise would. 

I agree and have previously stated that The Avenger took away millions from Battle (and Dark Shadows), but not enough to prevent either of them from becoming 'hits', which was the initial postulate of this thread. 

Offline CSM

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Re: How many movies will Avengers kill at the US BO?
« Reply #41 on: May 24, 2012, 12:47:36 PM »

I agree and have previously stated that The Avenger took away millions from Battle (and Dark Shadows), but not enough to prevent either of them from becoming 'hits', which was the initial postulate of this thread. 

Agreed.
Chris

Offline eatbrie

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Re: How many movies will Avengers kill at the US BO?
« Reply #42 on: May 29, 2012, 04:32:54 PM »
Another sad turn of event for Hollywood: The market doesn't seem to be expanding anymore.  In the past, even bad movies could do okay business at the BO thanks to the constant onslaught of P&A brainwashing from the studios and a little breathing room in the market.  It doesn't seem the case anymore.  Blame it on the growing cost of movie tickets, on the 3D surchage, but moviegoers seem more discerning in their choices.   When a movie does really well, it leaves cadavers in its wake (or, as Archie would put it, and in an attempt to be more diplomatic :)) takes away millions from the BO battlefield.  The Hunger Games helped kill Wrath of the Titans (a better movie which did half of the business of its critically lauded predecessor), and The Avengers helped kill Dark Shadows and Battleship.  While both movies are bad (I have seen them, and I can attest), they would have done substantially better business without The Avengers grossing $500 mil +.

Now comes Paramount's G.I. Joe, which has led me to change the title of this thread.  G.I. Joe was moved last Thursday from June to March 2013.  The studio used a 3D conversion attempt as an excuse, but no one is duped.  The movie is bad, and seeing that two really expensive movies have already flopped this year (prompting Disney to a $200 mil writeoff), Paramount freaked out and moved their dud to greener pastures (even after spending millions of $ on advertising.)  Toys were also pulled from shelves.  The way they had it set up, G.I. Joe was coming out a few days after Brave (no effect there), but also a few days before the new Spider-Man.  If the former ends up being good, it would probably do to G.I. Joe what Hunger Games and The Avengers did to others.

This is definitely a new turn of events that has a lot of people in Hollywood scratch their heads.  Personally, I think it all comes down to the absurd ticket prices and 3D surcharge.  Are bad movies really worth seeing that much?  It's finally sinking in.

T
« Last Edit: May 29, 2012, 04:36:45 PM by eatbrie »
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Charlie

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Re: The Box Office Thread
« Reply #43 on: May 29, 2012, 05:32:10 PM »
I think ticket prices combined with having to make the effort to go have combine to take a notch from going to the theater.  I think one reason for this is the introduction of on-demand movies.  Tell me you haven't done this.

Avenger's starts at 6:30 (I have a Studio Movie Grill three blocks away).  Well that means we have to change, get the kid ready, drive to the theater. Or we could just order one off the cable box.  Yeah and that only does cost $6 or whatever for 3 people.  So you order it make some food or order a pizza and you can watch in your underwear...  Then guess what if it is good sometimes since you have it for 24 hours; you can watch it again!

Another factor for me at least is being behind enough to not be starved of new movies. I wonder what it is called in the movie teck speak.  When you can afford to wait to see them on Blu-Ray or DVD because you have so many options.  TV, On Demand, Old DVDs, etc.  That is where I am at. I have missed so many new movies to the point where they are almost all new.  I just saw ghost protocol because the blu-ray was on sale at Blockbuster for $10.  I tend to buy more used Blu-Rays these days than go to a theater.  I can buy 5 for $20; that is 10 movies for the price of a theater visit for a family of three.  So missing Avengers at the big screen not big deal... Blockbuster will buy so many that I can get it for $10 in 6 months...

 In fact, I went to a Goonies screening with my daughter and had more motivation because of nostalgia than to see Avengers - simply because I didn't get to see it in theaters.  

Also the quality of Blu-ray has effected my decisions as well. I used to want to go to the theater for better picture and sound.  I actually prefer blu-ray now over the theater experience.  I don't gain any benefits from actually going to the theater...

Just a few thoughts...
« Last Edit: May 29, 2012, 05:32:34 PM by Charlie »

Offline eatbrie

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Re: The Box Office Thread
« Reply #44 on: May 29, 2012, 06:21:35 PM »
I think one reason for this is the introduction of on-demand movies.

Maybe to some extent, but not quite yet.  On-demand does not offset the fall of DVDs yet.  A lot of people don't buy DVDs anymore (I know I haven't bought one in a couple of years now) and On-demand is not nearly as strong as DVDs once were.  Not even close.  But if you add On-demand to dozens of other new distractions, the rising ticket prices and slow recovering economy, and you've got a solid argument.

T
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Offline Ari

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Re: The Box Office Thread
« Reply #45 on: May 29, 2012, 09:05:37 PM »
The ONLY reason I dont go to the cinema, ONLY is its too expensive.

I dont drive, but I would walk the 45 minutes to get there.

There's rarely a movie I particularly want to see, but I would watch just about anything in the cinema (not Justin Blah blah 3D etc)

I think cinema popcorn stinks.

BUT I'd still go,

I CAN'T AFFORD $18 for a ticket, so it gets saved for special movies, I will see new Alien, and I saw John Carter. So looks like a good year for me, last year it was just Piranha 3D.

 


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Offline eatbrie

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Re: The Box Office Thread
« Reply #46 on: May 29, 2012, 09:27:44 PM »
I CAN'T AFFORD $18 for a ticket, so it gets saved for special movies, I will see new Alien, and I saw John Carter. So looks like a good year for me, last year it was just Piranha 3D.

You might just be one of the most colorful and original guys I know, even if it's cyber friendship.

T
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Offline CSM

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Re: The Box Office Thread
« Reply #47 on: May 29, 2012, 09:31:13 PM »
The ONLY reason I dont go to the cinema, ONLY is its too expensive.

I dont drive, but I would walk the 45 minutes to get there.


Can't you kayak there with your new found skills?
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Offline eatbrie

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Re: The Box Office Thread
« Reply #48 on: May 29, 2012, 09:35:04 PM »
Funny shit!!!
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Offline theartofmovieposters

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Re: The Box Office Thread
« Reply #49 on: May 30, 2012, 12:25:09 AM »
The ONLY reason I dont go to the cinema, ONLY is its too expensive.

I dont drive, but I would walk the 45 minutes to get there.

There's rarely a movie I particularly want to see, but I would watch just about anything in the cinema (not Justin Blah blah 3D etc)

I think cinema popcorn stinks.

BUT I'd still go,

I CAN'T AFFORD $18 for a ticket, so it gets saved for special movies, I will see new Alien, and I saw John Carter. So looks like a good year for me, last year it was just Piranha 3D.

 




Is this what it costs now?  For goodness sake, that is ridonculous
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