Author Topic: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....  (Read 2836912 times)

Offline MoviePosterBid.com

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #5675 on: December 20, 2013, 02:43:34 PM »
With regards to poster 'dumping' I'm with Rich on the slow and steady vs. saturate the market approach

doing it any other way just shows a disregard for anyone aside from one's self

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Offline Harry Caul

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #5676 on: December 20, 2013, 02:54:02 PM »
If I found a bundle of 50 Superman #1s tomorrow, I'd sell one next month. I wouldn't sell another until next year. I wouldn't sell another until the next year after that. At my age, the bundle of 50 would outlive my timeline to sell them.

Those 50 Supermans constitute a huge fraction of the available market though.  No matter how slowly you trickled them out, people would claim you are "dumping" them and price declines would definitely happen.  Look at the Dracula 1-sheet.  Even though they were spaced out by 3 years (almost to the day) the price still dropped more than 50%.  And that was one of less than a handful known. 

If Bruce auctions a Pulp Fiction regular every week for 5 years straight, those 250 posters still probably only make up a 0.5% of the original printing (wild ass guess 50,000?).  Even of the copies still in existence -- maybe 5-10,000? -- those 250 are still just a drop in the bucket.  If Bruce was obliged to space them out more you could never sell all of them in 10 lifetimes.

I can understand why you personally would be upset at him selling PFs that consistently, Rich, given your large inventory of them.  However, I can also imagine his consignors being happy to get what they can while a certain poster is *hot*. 

And I say all this as someone who has 10+ of these :)


EDIT:  I just checked and there were 8 sold on eBay in less than a month. 
« Last Edit: December 20, 2013, 03:00:45 PM by Harry Caul »

Dread_Pirate_Mel

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #5677 on: December 20, 2013, 03:07:41 PM »
An agreement or coordination among sellers to constrain or regulate sales of a particular poster would blatantly violate the antitrust laws as well.

Offline MoviePosterBid.com

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #5678 on: December 20, 2013, 03:15:54 PM »
Those 50 Supermans constitute a huge fraction of the available market though.  No matter how slowly you trickled them out, people would claim you are "dumping" them and price declines would definitely happen.  Look at the Dracula 1-sheet.  Even though they were spaced out by 3 years (almost to the day) the price still dropped more than 50%.  And that was one of less than a handful known.  

If Bruce auctions a Pulp Fiction regular every week for 5 years straight, those 250 posters still probably only make up a 0.5% of the original printing (wild ass guess 50,000?).  Even of the copies still in existence -- maybe 5-10,000? -- those 250 are still just a drop in the bucket.  If Bruce was obliged to space them out more you could never sell all of them in 10 lifetimes.  

I can understand why you would be upset at him selling PFs that consistently, Rich.  However, I can also imagine his consignors being happy to get what they can.

incorrect Harry to some extent on the Supes #1 and I don't believe PF has been sold faster than people can buy them. There are dozens of titles, if not more that have been ruined. Go back and look for my comments on Fire Trap (1935) or the Mexican Orpheus (1949) poster (I was the first buyer) in previous threads here on APF

on the Supes #1. I have no doubt the market could sustain 5 copies being sold in the first year considering the hypothetical grade they would be in (near mint or better other than the outside copies).

The comic book hobby is 100 times the size of the poster hobby. Maybe 1000 times. Absorption rate for the Supes #1 would be greater than the absorption rate for any similar movie poster.

But at some point, maybe around the 3rd copy, price would start to tumble, so it is an economic issue combined with angst by the hobby. To avoid these issues, you slow your sales. It keeps everyone happy from top to bottom.

To be sure, this philosophy is practiced by the government of all nations concerning certain food products that farmers produce, like for instance, milk and eggs.

Farmers are paid to sometimes not produce as much milk as they could for very good reasons, with the biggest reason being that the government has an interest in preventing the giant farmers from destroying the small operators as well as preventing a deterioration of price which by itself could bankrupt a vast portion of the dairy business

here's the math (without government intervention): one company decides to dump twice as much milk into the economic stream as normal in order to drive their competitors out of business. The price of milk drops 30% and many farmers go bankrupt because they can't produce at a low enough price to support the business anymore, and these farmers disappear. Then the following season the lone producer standing can't produce enough milk to compensate for all the farmers they drove out of business, the cost of milk goes through the roof and consumers now are paying double for milk and other sectors of the economy suffer and it causes a recession. It's called cause and effect.

Our solar panel industry has been rocked by Chinese manufacturers dumping in the USA. The us Government responded to this by putting safeguards in place, but it happened a little too late and Solyndra (for instance. they're just one) goes bankrupt owing the American people half a billion dollars footed by tax payers

Now it would hard for any dealer in posters to create that exact situation, but that doesn't mean you can't affect other dealers or collectors negatively by not proactively paying attention to a certain rulebook. Anytime you sell or try to sell something where a market can't successfully absorb the material, the price structure is going to deteriorate. I fail to see why anyone in any market cannot adhere to certain rules of common courtesy or even common decency, but it requires a certain moral compass as well as an altruistic perspective taking others into account and how your actions may affect them.



« Last Edit: December 20, 2013, 03:16:30 PM by MoviePosterBid.com »

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Offline Silhouette

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #5679 on: December 20, 2013, 03:18:11 PM »
An agreement or coordination among sellers to constrain or regulate sales of a particular poster would blatantly violate the antitrust laws as well.

If the law doesn't care about those who knowingly sell fakes why would they care about price collusion?
David


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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #5680 on: December 20, 2013, 03:21:09 PM »
An agreement or coordination among sellers to constrain or regulate sales of a particular poster would blatantly violate the antitrust laws as well.

I don't think anyone champions collusion here Mel.

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Dread_Pirate_Mel

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #5681 on: December 20, 2013, 03:34:11 PM »
I don't think anyone champions collusion here Mel.

Let's just say you're well-advised to follow these guidelines from this comic book dealer association:

http://www.comicspro.org/content.aspx?page_id=22&club_id=843470&module_id=84633

It is the policy of ComicsPRO to abide by and follow both the letter and the spirit of all U.S. and International Antitrust and Competition laws.  ComicsPRO does not advocate or sanction any agreement or understanding with respect to group or collective purchasing, pricing, or refusals to deal with any supplier, vendor, retail chain participant, customer or groups of customers.  Members of ComicsPRO may decide unilaterally to sell to or to buy from whomever they wish and ComicsPRO takes no position with respect to our members' individually considered business decisions.  ComicsPRO also does not take any position with respect to the terms and conditions that its members establish or agree to when contracting with suppliers, vendors, or retail chain participants.  The decision to enter into a business relationship or contract, and the terms under which the relationship shall be governed, is an individual decision for each member.  It is ComicsPRO's position that all such contracts should be reviewed carefully and if any member has concerns or questions, they should seek guidance from their independent counsel.

If the law doesn't care about those who knowingly sell fakes why would they care about price collusion?

"The law" sent Kerry Haggard to jail for a long spell.  If you're referring to Ebay, it is "willfully blind" to fakes and sees itself legally purely as a venue for sales amongst buyers and sellers.  Anyone can start a class-action lawsuit tomorrow against the fakesters. Just a matter of convincing a class-action attorney to take your case on a contingency basis or financing it yourself.
 
« Last Edit: December 20, 2013, 03:38:42 PM by Dread_Pirate_Mel »

Offline MoviePosterBid.com

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #5682 on: December 20, 2013, 03:38:54 PM »
Mel, let me tell you what is absolutely hilarious about the comic hobby and collusion

the hobby is rife with it and it is rife with it in the most obvious of places: the Comic Book Price Guide

all that association is, is window dressing

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Offline CSM

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #5683 on: December 20, 2013, 03:46:39 PM »
An agreement or coordination among sellers to constrain or regulate sales of a particular poster would blatantly violate the antitrust laws as well.

I have been saying nearly the same thing about this scenario (in far less severe words) about "gatekeepers" and "artificial" "abitrary" manipulation of the market. This is essentially what Rich feels is best...
« Last Edit: December 20, 2013, 03:51:52 PM by CSM »
Chris

Offline stewart boyle

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #5684 on: December 20, 2013, 03:48:59 PM »
"The law" sent Kerry Haggard to jail for a long spell.  If you're referring to Ebay, it is "willfully blind" to fakes and sees itself legally purely as a venue for sales amongst buyers and sellers.  Anyone can start a class-action lawsuit tomorrow against the fakesters. Just a matter of convincing a class-action attorney to take your case on a contingency basis or financing it yourself.
The additions make more sense Mel,you had me confused the first time. thumbup

Stew
« Last Edit: December 20, 2013, 03:52:13 PM by stewart boyle »

Offline Silhouette

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #5685 on: December 20, 2013, 04:04:11 PM »

"The law" sent Kerry Haggard to jail for a long spell.  If you're referring to Ebay, it is "willfully blind" to fakes and sees itself legally purely as a venue for sales amongst buyers and sellers.  Anyone can start a class-action lawsuit tomorrow against the fakesters. Just a matter of convincing a class-action attorney to take your case on a contingency basis or financing it yourself.
 

Indeed, but surely the problem is that the real money is being made at the bottom end (of the price scale) and in volume, top end fakes/forgers and sellers of same are few and far between.

The law could give a toss about GWTS Star Wars posters or the endless supply of Cookie Monster autographs - the sellers get away with it because at the end of the day it's a few bucks. It'd probably cost more to file the claim than chalk it up to a bad experience so not worth the hassle of the new owner taking action.

Sellers of fakes and forgeries at the lower end rely on buyer apathy, that coupled with the fact that very few would be selling 100% fakes/forgeries 100% of the time so they get away with it, knowing full well they can because they can hide behind it being an 'honest' mistake if challenged.
David


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Offline jayn_j

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #5687 on: December 20, 2013, 04:22:56 PM »
Seems to me that what is being described here is a cartel.  There are lots of them out there, some legal, some illegal.

How is slowly dribbling out Superman #1s different than what DeBeers does with the large stash of diamonds they control?

Another question.  If Rich owns 50 of the 55 known Superman #1s and keeps them locked in a vault, what is the true availability?  Should those 50 be considered to dilute the market or should they be considered a single copy since they will not be split any time soon?
-Jay-

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #5688 on: December 20, 2013, 04:26:03 PM »
I have been saying nearly the same thing about this scenario (in far less severe words) about "gatekeepers" and "artificial" "abitrary" manipulation of the market. This is essentially what Rich feels is best...

Wrong Chris. I do not advocate dealers getting together by any stretch of the imagination, but you can be a gatekeeper of sorts on your own. Don't forget, YOU have an investment, however you look at it, and the gatekeeper is protecting your investment as well as anyone else's.

If you're a cheap-O, there is still ample opportunity  to wait for the perfect time.


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Offline MoviePosterBid.com

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #5689 on: December 20, 2013, 04:31:34 PM »
How is slowly dribbling out Superman #1s different than what DeBeers does with the large stash of diamonds they control?

Another question.  If Rich owns 50 of the 55 known Superman #1s and keeps them locked in a vault, what is the true availability?  Should those 50 be considered to dilute the market or should they be considered a single copy since they will not be split any time soon?

I meant to include diamonds in my post.. and gold also.

on Supes #1.. there are probably closer to 500 copies extant. maybe twice that number, but there are few that grade 9.2 and above. However a decrease in the value of a 9.2 would also decrease the value proportionately on the remaining copies below that grade. It would have an effect on other titles also as the market would be starved of the extra cash generated at higher values..

But the milk, eggs, solar panels situations are a much better example than anything for the reasons exampled.

everyone needs to think of the entirety of a market, not just their own little corner.
Sure I'd love to buy a Lambourgini for $10,000, but Lambourgini would go out of business very quickly at that price and who does that serve?

you have altruism and selfishness in a constant battle.

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Offline CSM

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #5690 on: December 20, 2013, 04:35:01 PM »
Another question.  If Rich owns 50 of the 55 known Superman #1s and keeps them locked in a vault, what is the true availability?  Should those 50 be considered to dilute the market or should they be considered a single copy since they will not be split any time soon?

This is a great question and something I have asked as well.  Technically these posters are not in the market but they are known to exist and will, at some point, reach the market. So the true sense of "supply and demand" is flawed.  But as a buyer and collector I would bide my time and would never sink lots of $ into a commodity were I know several more exist but are not technically available.  There are simply too many scenarios allowing for the gatekeeper to lose the keys and the vaults to be opened.
Chris

Dread_Pirate_Mel

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #5691 on: December 20, 2013, 04:37:43 PM »
Indeed, but surely the problem is that the real money is being made at the bottom end (of the price scale) and in volume, top end fakes/forgers and sellers of same are few and far between.

The law could give a toss about GWTS Star Wars posters or the endless supply of Cookie Monster autographs - the sellers get away with it because at the end of the day it's a few bucks. It'd probably cost more to file the claim than chalk it up to a bad experience so not worth the hassle of the new owner taking action.

Sellers of fakes and forgeries at the lower end rely on buyer apathy, that coupled with the fact that very few would be selling 100% fakes/forgeries 100% of the time so they get away with it, knowing full well they can because they can hide behind it being an 'honest' mistake if challenged.

You're preaching to the choir. To increase its profits Ebay has now shut down all communication among buyers and made all feedback anonymous so it's a paradise for small-time scamsters.
« Last Edit: December 20, 2013, 04:38:19 PM by Dread_Pirate_Mel »

Bruce

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #5692 on: December 20, 2013, 04:52:33 PM »
If I understand correctly, if there is one Pulp Fiction on eBay every two weeks, that is hunky dory, but if there is one Pulp Fiction on eMoviePoster.com every two weeks, that is an outrage.

Duly noted!

Offline MoviePosterBid.com

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #5693 on: December 20, 2013, 05:03:43 PM »
some people apparently do not read well or their reading comprehension is suspect

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Offline Silhouette

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #5694 on: December 20, 2013, 05:39:14 PM »
You're preaching to the choir. To increase its profits Ebay has now shut down all communication among buyers and made all feedback anonymous so it's a paradise for small-time scamsters.

Yeah probably right, as long as you're in tune.  ;)

Issue I have is that it's not just eBay. Haggard wasn't sent to jail because of some checks and measures in place by the auction house [enter long version here]; perhaps Haggard and his cohorts are feeling apologetic, but only because they got caught.

There's probably nothing to be done, the higher the profile/feedback/experience of the seller the more chance they will likely get away with selling a fake; and if you can put your fake items on the market via a 'reputable' retailer/reseller who will invariably turn a blind eye under the guise of just being a service provider then you've got away with the near perfect crime.
« Last Edit: December 20, 2013, 05:39:49 PM by Silhouette »
David


Mirosae

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #5695 on: December 21, 2013, 03:36:44 AM »
You're preaching to the choir. To increase its profits Ebay has now shut down all communication among buyers and made all feedback anonymous so it's a paradise for small-time scamsters.



Hence reason I don't buy posters on Ebay.

I rather give my money to HA, Rich or Bruce...as long as they give me back some nice posters ;)

Offline MoviePosterBid.com

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #5696 on: December 21, 2013, 04:01:49 AM »
Hence reason I don't buy posters on Ebay.

I rather give my money to HA, Rich or Bruce...as long as they give me back some nice posters ;)

it's a deal!
 sm1

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Bruce

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #5697 on: December 26, 2013, 09:40:27 PM »
Now of course I can't reveal who the bidders were on the below poster, but you can guess a few of them by looking at their IDs in the bid history.

I can say that those who bid include many of the people who I consider have the greatest taste in movie posters, not surprising, since I think this poster (with a wonderful image that I have never seen before) is one of the coolest posters ever, and I can see what drew all these illustrious people to bid on it!

http://auctions.emovieposter.com/Bidding.taf?_function=detail&Auction_uid1=3233248

« Last Edit: December 26, 2013, 09:41:08 PM by Bruce »

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #5698 on: December 26, 2013, 09:58:38 PM »
I actually think this poster is amongst the most attractive posters that has sold recently and not surprisingly, it sold for the 2nd highest recorded price for the style at $1012.00

http://www.movieposterbid.com/itemdetl.asp?id=107822



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Dread_Pirate_Mel

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #5699 on: December 26, 2013, 10:01:19 PM »
Well, as I expected the incomplete Where Danger Lives blew up at the very end, going from $227 to $2200 in the last hour, past my financial pain tolerance: