Author Topic: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....  (Read 2832555 times)

Offline theartofmovieposters

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #75 on: January 21, 2010, 11:04:04 PM »
Yes, if only we all could, then we could retire quite comfortably :)
Ves

Dr Hackenbush

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #76 on: January 21, 2010, 11:09:15 PM »
I shuold say.. I thought 6-8k was cheap when he sold it.. and that it should be closer to 15k

It'll be interesting to see what it fetches.  Are there more than one example of the Swedish KK known to exist?

Offline holiday

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #77 on: January 22, 2010, 12:33:36 AM »
Ouch!  Here we go again with them.  Lately, seems like they're having a tough time with their authenticators.
Best regards,

Holiday


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Dread_Pirate_Mel

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #78 on: January 22, 2010, 10:28:55 AM »
I like this thread a lot and I've pinned it.  There's enough auctions out there that it should keep going quite nicely.

Holiday, thanks for pinning this thread but should we be discussing PENDING timed auctions?  That's why I titled it "POST-AUCTION." Everybody is looking for a good deal and "to the finder should go the spoils" - half the fun of this hobby is finding stellar deals.  Discussing pending auctions "let's the cat out of the bag" and can dramatically increase the final price.  

I would suggest that is OK to discuss pending "high profile" auctions like the Heritage Metropolis auction but lower-profile auction discussions should be delayed until the conclusion of the auction. If you don't want the poster yourself, you should PM those who might be interested, rather than publicly announcing it.  Of course, that principle should not apply to sellers, who can promote their auctions as they desire.

Again, that's just my opinion.  Anybody agree or disagree?
« Last Edit: January 22, 2010, 10:40:01 AM by Dread_Pirate_Mel »

Offline kovacs01

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #79 on: January 23, 2010, 05:54:52 PM »
oh, i dont think the good deal is to be found on heritage or bruce's site.  Actually, there are great deals to be found, but it isnt because no one knows they are there.  I would say that posting a poster that is likely to go north of 10k shouldnt be a foul.  Anyone looking to buy one of those probably cares little about what kind of deal they will get.
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Offline Harry Caul

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #80 on: January 23, 2010, 08:06:02 PM »
Actually, if I could get that Metropolis insert for $10k I would consider it quite the deal!  ;D

Seriously though, I agree with the above sentiments... Big time stuff at Heritage and eMovie, fine. But otherwise, lips sealed until after. 

Dread_Pirate_Mel

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #81 on: January 23, 2010, 09:27:20 PM »
I agree that it's unlikely a poster at Heritage or Emovie is going to escape notice.  So I'd say if it's near $1,000 on those sites and several active bidders then it's fair game for discussion.  If that's the limit, check out this amazing evil/cool Rolling Stones "Sympathy for the Devil" up for bid this week at Heritage.  It blasted from $150 to $1000 earlier this week:




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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #82 on: January 24, 2010, 09:20:43 PM »
A C-8 rolled Star Wars first printing just went for $410 in Cinemasterpiece's Ebay auction - pretty good deal IMHO - no last second bidders:


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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #83 on: January 24, 2010, 10:32:56 PM »
everyone today is watching the great football games we had today, so bidding is always light

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wonka

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #84 on: January 24, 2010, 11:04:44 PM »
Has it been confirmed without a shred of doubt that the SW that Dave sold is the first printing?

Mel, out of curiosity, why do you always link to Heritage auctions when comparing or even simply conveying value?

Bruce

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #85 on: January 24, 2010, 11:28:30 PM »
Wonka brings up a good point. I can confirm that 100% of the results in our database since 2002 reflect the exact price paid for that item, IN CASH. No sales that "fell through" and were re-auctioned, no "trades", etc. I guarantee you every other database has LOTS of sales that never happened, or were the result of the auction house "buying" the item from themselves.

So take all those other "results" with a BIG grain of salt. Just because someone else supposedly paid, say, $1,100 for something doesn't mean you necessarily got a great deal when you later buy it for $500, because that $1,100 "sale" may never have happened. We all regularly watch the same items coming back again and again to some places, seemingly "selling" each time, and THEIR results databases show ALL those results as "sales".

You might say, how can I be so certain eMoviePoster.com's results are exactly accurate. Because we only add them when we pay the consignors for those items, 30 to 59 days later. If we don't get paid IN FULL in that time, the sale is not included. If we get paid later, we add it then. And if we never get paid (which only happens 1% of the time), we re-auction the item and only that real second result is included when IT is paid for.

And we know the same is true of no other auction house. So please don't point to their results as an indication of what an item is "worth", because while it MAY be an accurate result, it also may be pure fantasy, and there is no way to tell the difference.

Bruce


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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #86 on: January 24, 2010, 11:34:57 PM »
Isn't the 77/21-0 the first printing?  [ur=http://www.learnaboutmovieposters.com/posters/db/poster.asp?pid=1900l]LAMP says it is[/url].

Here we go with the Heritage bashing again. Although I rarely buy anything from Heritage, it does have the best designed website and it's easier to find past prices there - and you can download full pics of the posters actually sold (you can only see small versions of past sales on Emovie and none on MBid).  They also seem to get more "high profile" auctions than the other sites.  I know a lot of people here don't like Heritage and claim their "buyer's premium" distorts or inflate prices.  I don't like the BP either but Christie's & Sotheby's do it too and it's very debatable whether they raise the ultimate sale price since any competent buyer will factor the premium into his/her bidding.

As far as the "shill bidding" allegations against Heritage, the jury is still out on that, notwithstanding all the hype.  I'm a defense lawyer and I deal with a lot of plaintiffs making a lot of bogus allegations - and 95% of them lose.

wonka

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #87 on: January 24, 2010, 11:52:41 PM »
Thank you for your perspective on this one, Bruce...it was an angle that I did not even anticipate, yet do agree with in terms of the sales actually being a reality or not.

Mel, this really has nothing to do about Heritage bashing and it has even less to do with your profession that you allude to in a fair percentage of your posts.  It has more to do with the issues Bruce raises, but on a more general level, how value is affixed to posters.  Heritage is not poster value gospel.  Neither is eMovie.  Neither is Dave.  Neither is Egbert.  And on down the line.  

Values obviously fluctuate over time (some more than others), but there are so many variables to take into consideration when applying any value to any poster.  A particular item might be auctioned at the right time at the right venue and be seen by the right buyers to throw said item into the stratosphere in terms of final price realized (Ferris), but if one of those variables did not work out when the auction might not have brought that price.

Posters are not like selling cars, where people can point to a Kelley's Blue Book or the dealership sticker for an industry and economically accepted value.  You can't buy a new Honda Civic for $3,000, but the endless variables in our hobby allow for a buyer to purchase an original Breakfast at Tiffany's one sheet for $300 (Harry?).  Amazing, and one reason I really enjoy this hobby...you would not believe the steals I have in my collection that I picked up for peanuts compared to what Heritage, etc...says it is "worth".

Regardless, I do think you dig well and are resourceful with your thoughtful research, but the allegiance to Heritage values (or any ONE/SINGULAR source) is completely folly and misleading to be honest.

Offline 50s

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #88 on: January 25, 2010, 12:07:49 AM »
(you can only see small versions of past sales on Emovie and none on MBid).

A tip on using emovieposter site... the images in the Poster Image Archive may look small, but I have noticed nearly all of them are in fact larger than they appear as they are scaled down on the fly when you load the page. Most can be seen larger at 150% to 400% or more by saving the image and opening it to view it... or simply if using FireFox , right click and select View Image

A question/suggestion for Bruce, not sure why the image archive is seperate to the results archive. A photo icon next to those posters in the results archive which have a photo would surely remove the need for the image archive altogether. Sounds like there maybe something structurally wrong with the information architecture (2 seperate databases used instead of one?) or maybe just some time needed for programming to combine them properly? It would be handy to have all poster info and images in the one search :-)

Bruce

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #89 on: January 25, 2010, 06:41:05 AM »
50s

A few months ago I went to great expense to hire a full-time programmer to fix the two significant "weak areas" in my website.

The first, and more important in my opinion, is that we lack an integrated "check-out" system, one that allows you to see everything you have purchased from us, and what you have not paid for, and which allows you to pay online, but ONLY IF YOU CHOOSE TO.

There are pre-packaged check-out systems we could have purchased, but they are fairly rigid, and you need to rely on their tech support. Once our in-house system is completed, we will have the ability to fix it ourselves, but more important, to keep making quick changes and improvements, as we see new features helpful to our customers.

We are getting closer and closer to implementing the new check-out (which lets you pay every way you used to, but adds good online capability to all of it, for those who want it), but we are still around a month away.

The moment the check-out system is finished, our programmer goes to work on the second "weak area" in my website, which is integrating the Sales Result Database and the Image Archive. That will likely take months as well, but once it is done, you will have all you want.

Mel

You truly DO miss my point here, and before, when we have had this discussion, and I think it is a reflection of how you are a very honest person and can't conceive of a large organization that is corrupt in major way. It is that same sort of thinking that allowed Bernie Madoff and Enron to continue as long as they did.

As 50s pointed out, in this context, I am merely pointing out that many, many people are misled into paying far higher prices for items that they might have, because they THINK they are buying them for far less than someone else did, when that someone else may never have actually bought that item at all. And when you quote dubious results, you may be helping that process to occur. At the least, when you quote prices from an unreliable source, you should add a disclaimer, like, "assuming this sale went through", or words to that effect.

Bruce

scartacus

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #90 on: January 25, 2010, 10:40:08 AM »
So just to confirm Bruce, in your opinion, the sales records on Heritage Auctions are unreliable and are not to be trusted? And if they can be proven to be unreliable/false, can't something be done about it?

Offline 50s

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #91 on: January 25, 2010, 04:25:29 PM »
Spartacus, there are stretches of the truth in nearly everything, especially when money is involved. If there were regulations made down to that detail the world would no doubt grind to a halt (they can stick whatever results they like up unless they are specifically claiming those results are something else - what does it say on their site in the fine print about their historic archive?). As I believe Bruce mentioned, keep an open mind.

As someone else mentioned also, even accurate results are in fact misleading as they are only at the very moment at sale useful only.  Were all bidders there (like was a sports event on at the same time), are the results from when the internet just started (higher results were generally back then), was there lots of advertising done, did an actor just die or is there a remake planned, have reprints (or previously undiscovered originals) just entered the market, what is/was the state of the economy like,...

These price guides are just that, a guide, you need to consider many factors if you want to try to determine what the next sale might go for.

The one thing about the price guides, I believe, is that it helps those sites with the guides as people will use those guide prices as a reference for their bidding. Why else would those companies show it and invest money into showing it, especially if it is a free service. It is a reference point for bidders and for also for consigners. I guess it adds a bit more certainty for the seller/consignor. Manipulating those results or making them misleading is to the advantage of the seller. Unfortunately you are bidding against people who look at these guides and likely bid more that they otherwise would.

The moment the check-out system is finished, our programmer goes to work on the second "weak area" in my website, which is integrating the Sales Result Database and the Image Archive. That will likely take months as well, but once it is done, you will have all you want.

Thanks for the updates Bruce. The new checkout system to view purchases and make payments online sounds great, and integrating the 2 results databases good too. Good luck.

Offline MoviePosterBid.com

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #92 on: January 25, 2010, 05:34:55 PM »
I agree with 50s 100%

listen, all results - including Bruce's - need to be understood in context
otherwise Holiday Affair style-b is a $3383.00 poster because Bruce sold one at that price.
Heritage on the other hand has 2 sales $567 + $1015

whose results are correct??

Bruce will in all likelihood not repeat that result

also, while I agree that "non-sales" should not be in Heritage database files, seeing as I have no access to their internal database to prove or disprove Bruce's claims of false results, all I can put forth is conjecture about said results and to be honest, Bruce or Heritage criticizing each other is alot like Republicans and Democrats. They each have their own perspectives with almost no intersecting truths.

yes, Heritage does seem to have items in the database which seem to have been auctioned 2/3/4 times and which appear to be the same item. In posters it's more difficult to tell than it is in the comics area where CGC encapsulation helps to determine if a copy being sold is the same copy as before (CGC capsules are serial numbered). If Heritage or Bruce or myself or anyone else is involved in "funny business" and such funny stuff can be proven beyond a reasonable doubt, I'm all for outing the info.. But without direct access to the relevent information, which neither Bruce nor I have, I "just can't get there". Yes there is some anecdotal evidence, but such anecdotal evidence is what makes people continue to say that Bruce had shill bidding when he was at Christie's but be entirely unable to profer any real proof other than their opinions.

I appreciate that Bruce has criticism of Heritage, but anecdotal evidence isn't solid proof by any stretch of the imagination and all competitors will look for reasons to critique each other. But I believe you need much more solidified proof to criticize any business model than what anyone has available.

That said, if N.P. Gresham really shill bids past the level of any reserve price, it should be noted publicly. Likewise if anyone can prove Russ Cochran shill bid for Bruce back at Christies it should also be noted publicly. Myself, I was at the auction that Russ is accused and I know background info that leads me to deny the allegations against Bruce. Concerning N.P. Gresham, I do not have any real info other than the lawsuit brought by a disgruntled employee and his friend that Heritage has indeed acted in an improper manner. Grey Smith denies it just like Bruce denies shilling, so until any information - such as an adjudication in court - comes to light, I do not believe N.P. Gresham acted inappropriately. At such a time as I have information indicating otherwise - and for certain - I cannot agree with Bruce on that subject. The jury is out

If Heritage has results in the database that are false, yes they should be removed. But I am not an employee of Heritage and I do not make their rules.

Rich

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Bruce

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #93 on: January 25, 2010, 08:21:27 PM »
I am saying that EVERY auction has results which never happened. They put up the results within days of the end of the auction and then those results stay there whether or not the buyer ever pays, or whether or not the item is returned. In my database, I wait 30 to 59 days to post the results, and then ONLY those that were paid for 100% in cash are poster.

For that matter, how can any auction that gives "buyers" 6 months or a year to pay even remotely consider posting "results" until that much time goes by?

And Rich, forget about "looks like it could be the same item" up two or three times. The defects match exactly, And as to your other doubts, anecdotal evidence CAN be extremely compelling. As I posted on January 9th:

"One of my longtime buyers called me and told me the following story:

     "I have been a buyer in major poster auctions for over 20 years. I have bought some in your online auctions, but not that much, because I am not that comfortable with computers. I have been learning how to do so, and have been bidding with you, and I recently noticed that one of your competitiors has online auctions as well, and I looked at them.
     I found 11 items to bid on, and I gave my secretary 11 bids to place on those items for me. A couple were between the estimates, but most were over the estimates, and I had bid odd amounts (like $235, etc).
     A few days later I got notification that I had won all 11 items, and I told my secretary to pay for them, and she asked me why EVERY item was EXACTLY the price I bid! I looked at the list, and just as she had said, I was the high bidder on every item at EXACTLY my limit.
    Now I could see that happening on a few of the items, or even five or six, BUT ALL ELEVEN? I mean, that is astronomical that it could be caused by chance. It would be like picking the winners of 11 straight horse races! It makes me very sad and angry, but it is easy to figure out what happened."

I told him that many other people had told me very similar stories over the years, and that the best way to deal with this is to either not bid in such auctions, or, if they have items you would like to have at some price, then go ahead and bid, but assume that they will "make" you pay your maximum, so only a bid a price you will be happy to pay.
     Of course, it is very sad that they have to have this charade of an auction, and that there are surely many, many, people who don't "catch on" for years, if ever, but until the government ever steps in and regulates this completely unregulated industry, it is likely to not change one bit.
     Incidentally, I have heard auction owners defend their actions by saying that no one is really hurt by this, because after all, the buyers are getting to buy items for the price they themselves set as the price they were willing to pay, but I don't buy this for one second, because there is gross misrepresentation in "how the game is played" (even if the auctions put in the fine print that they can bid on their own items, that consignors can bid on their own items, that reserves can be over the estimates, etc).

A couple of weeks later, that same longtime buyer called me back and said that once he got over being so mad, he took my advice and simply bid prices he was willing to pay. He said he had just placed three bids, and he bid three VERY odd numbers (like $171.50), and in all three cases, he "won" the items for EXACTLY his limit! But at least now he knows "how the game is played", so he is not as mad, although he said he will likely bid less and less high in the future in those auctions (but he mentioned how he had bid $400 in an eMoviePoster.com auction recently and won the item for $160!)."

Now Rich, you may find the above does not prove anything, and on that we will just have to agree to disagree!

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #94 on: January 25, 2010, 08:31:35 PM »
Bruce, I have a friend who also says the same things to me, however I also bid on Heritage and rarely does my winning item wind up at my max. I either seem to save a lot of money, or lose the item. But that's just me.

Now if I had very many people telling me the same things, not as in this case just 2, then I'm going to be questioning the issue.. 2 people is an entirely anecdotal situation.. if I hear it from 30-40-50 people, then I'll be swayed


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Dread_Pirate_Mel

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #95 on: January 25, 2010, 08:32:24 PM »

Bruce or Heritage criticizing each other is a lot like Republicans and Democrats. They each have their own perspectives with almost no intersecting truths. If Heritage or Bruce or myself or anyone else is involved in "funny business" and such funny stuff can be proven beyond a reasonable doubt, I'm all for outing the info.. But without direct access to the relevent information, which neither Bruce nor I have, I "just can't get there".... I appreciate that Bruce has criticism of Heritage, but anecdotal evidence isn't solid proof by any stretch of the imagination and all competitors will look for reasons to critique each other. But I believe you need much more solidified proof to criticize any business model than what anyone has available.

Concerning N.P. Gresham, I do not have any real info other than the lawsuit brought by a disgruntled employee and his friend that Heritage has indeed acted in an improper manner. Grey Smith denies it just like Bruce denies shilling, so until any information - such as an adjudication in court - comes to light, I do not believe N.P. Gresham acted inappropriately. At such a time as I have information indicating otherwise - and for certain - I cannot agree with Bruce on that subject.

Rich


Rich, you are truly a fair-minded person.  For you to stand up for Heritage unless and until they are proven guilty - even though they are a direct competitor of yours - is really commendable.

Bruce

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #96 on: January 25, 2010, 08:56:46 PM »
Rich

I have heard it over and over and over, not just once or twice. If I were trying to prove it, I would run ads in collectible publications asking for people who had this experience to contact me. But I have no need to go further with this.

Bruce

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #97 on: January 25, 2010, 09:04:08 PM »
thanks Mel.. that's why I also stand up for Bruce when I hear people talk about shilling that did not exist in his Christie's auctions on his behalf


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Dread_Pirate_Mel

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #98 on: January 25, 2010, 10:34:02 PM »
The super-rare 41" E.T. Moon/Bike poster is back on Ebay ... with a starting bid of $4,200!



Anybody think he's going to get that?

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #99 on: January 25, 2010, 10:47:02 PM »
I doubt it.. but I wonder how many 2-sided Fargo 1sheets Bruce would rather have than that poster

 ;D

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