Pricing Trends?

[mattsw]

Hi everyone,

I have been trying to use the databases maintained by Heritage and Emovieposter when gauging the value of a current auction.  Both databases are wonderful resources with pictures, grading, prices and dates.  My question has to do with the overall trend in prices.  There have been several occasions that the lobby card I am looking at does have history, or perhaps a card from that set, and in similar grading, but the record is a few years old.  Has there been any trends on escalation of prices over the past several years?  Has the economy flattened prices at all, or can I assume a certain level of escalation?  I know that rarity, etc., and case-by-case situations will be different, but I am wondering if there is any generalizations on pricing over the past 4 - 5 years.

Thanks,
Matthew

[CSM]

I would say in this particular hobby broad generalizations will prove faulty.  It really is on a case-by-case, rarity vs. condition vs. poster type and poster title/art/depiction.

That said - the best of the best (in terms of condition, rarity, title, artwork) will likely always retain or increase in value.

[wonka]

I sum up the trends right now: JAWS JAWS JAWS

[CSM]

The other thing to consider is supply and demand (which is somewhat similar to that word that gets thrown about so often "rarity").

Sometimes finds are made or collections are dispersed which increases the available number of a certain specific poster to the market.  This tends to result in a gradual deescalation of the price results as the supply increases and the demand is met over a period of time.  

Right now it would seem that posters for "classic" movies from the 70s/80s are particularly popular with resultant increases in price results.  While there is great demand, the auction results are tempered by a HUGE supply in the market...

[Mirosae]

Agree with Chris. My impression is that some genres such as westerns and musicals are not the trend right now. Which is fine by me.

Long live John Ford  (and John Wayne)

[wonka]

...and Bogart. 

[Crazy Vick]

I noticed that the Russian movie posters haven't been doing so well in the last 6 months...  Trend?  Glitch in the matrix?  Giant FU, Putin?

[Mirosae]

...and Bogart. 

You are so right Sir!!
 

[jayn_j]

Agree with Chris. My impression is that some genres such as westerns and musicals are not the trend right now. Which is fine by me.

Long live John Ford  (and John Wayne)

Works for me.  The top titles will always command top prices, even in those genres, but everything else is a bargain.

[mattsw]

Definitely the classics and very fine grades seem to maintain their value.  And not so much classics (I love the Hope/Crosby/Lamour Road Shows  and they seem to always command a pretty good price).  But I did find it very interesting the comments above about the 1970's and 1980's becoming very popular, and that certain genres go through phases of popularity, with apparently Westerns and Musicals not being so popular right now. 

Are the 1970's and 1980's seen as "old enough" now so as to be collectible? 

One genre that I have seen over the last several years as being very hot is Sci-fi...particularly 50's Sci-fi.  Is that a trend or has it always been highly sought after?

[Neo]

Definitely the classics and very fine grades seem to maintain their value.  And not so much classics (I love the Hope/Crosby/Lamour Road Shows  and they seem to always command a pretty good price).  But I did find it very interesting the comments above about the 1970's and 1980's becoming very popular, and that certain genres go through phases of popularity, with apparently Westerns and Musicals not being so popular right now. 

Are the 1970's and 1980's seen as "old enough" now so as to be collectible? 

One genre that I have seen over the last several years as being very hot is Sci-fi...particularly 50's Sci-fi.  Is that a trend or has it always been highly sought after?

There's a trend for several things that are about 30 years old, where those items become highly sought after, often times by the people who grew up around that stuff.  Some good, recent examples are: muscle cars, skateboards, and video games.  The demand tends to be toward things that were not created to be "collectible" and many were discarded or not cared for well, such as original movie posters.  So, yes, in many cases, posters from the 70s and 80s are old enough now to be part of that trend, Jaws is a prime example.

[Starling]

I mean, call me crazy, but I still don't see how Jaws or Blade Runner or Taxi Driver are going to go through the roof pricewise, because there are tons and tons of them around.  They show up at auction a few times a month and are all over ebay.  But then again, I joined the hobby when they were like 300-400 dollar posters, and I'm sure the old time collectors remember when they were like a dollar each.  I would be shocked if these ever become 2k-3k posters.  But who knows, crazier things have happened.  Not every poster can be a Hannah and her Sisters daybill. 

[Crazy Vick]

some form or another of price fixing from old school producers and directors buying out their own product.  Next film poster to skyrocket: Conspiracy Theory!

[Neo]

I mean, call me crazy, but I still don't see how Jaws or Blade Runner or Taxi Driver are going to go through the roof pricewise, because there are tons and tons of them around.  They show up at auction a few times a month and are all over ebay.  But then again, I joined the hobby when they were like 300-400 dollar posters, and I'm sure the old time collectors remember when they were like a dollar each.  I would be shocked if these ever become 2k-3k posters.  But who knows, crazier things have happened.  Not every poster can be a Hannah and her Sisters daybill.  

Although many of the items for titles like Jaws and Taxi Driver are fairly common, I think that they're still in high demand because of how iconic the movies and art are, and of course the huge fan base.

However, the whole "market being flooded, thus lowering demand" also rings true on some items, for instance a Jaws soundtrack poster sold for $175 in mid May, and the same guy sold 5 more over the next couple months, and the last one sold for $33.  

http://www.ebay.com/sch/records123/m.html?item=191222096526&pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item2c85b9a28e&_from=R40&_sacat=0&_nkw=jaws&LH_Complete=1&rt=nc

[MoviePosterBid.com]

older material other than very specific classics and/or specific rarities will always be salable, though the prices may not be a good financial investment.

Because collecting is generational, the vast majority of older merchandise will stagnate or drop in price and a poster that sold for $500 10 years ago and $600 today was a very poor investment while a poster that sold for $5 10 years ago and $25 today is a fabulous investment. This presumes that you can achieve full value when you sell and you aren't selling via a second party

Pricing trends in movie poster collecting have never been consistent one way or the other. Even Dracula, a rare and rarified area of collecting, does not sell consistently for increasing amounts.

We're talking about collectibles here and in a limited market. You can't go to a bank and get a loan on your collection and you can't just list your collection and sell it virtually overnight without taking a serious haircut - no matter what you own. Even the best Unihorror collection would sell well below it's "value" if it had to be dispersed, especially in a short period of time.

the pricing trend in posters??
there is no trend << that's the trend

[eatbrie]

I know I'm a minority here, probably even the only one, but I believe that posters are worth nothing.  Don't take me wrong.  I own about 10,000 movie posters and I will say that I have spent a large sum of money acquiring them over the years and still do.  I am a collector, I have never sold a poster and don't intend to ever sell one.  If my heirs can recoup what I have spent on my posters, more power to them, but I seriously doubt it.  To me, my collection is worth about $10,000, because everything has a value and each poster I own is worth at least $1.  Yes, even the Biebers.

What I'm trying to say is that I do not collect for investment.  I collect because I like collecting, I spend some of my discretionary income on posters and it brings me happiness.  I don't know exactly why, but it does.  That's as much as I can ask from the hobby (and from life in general).  Trends change constantly.  What is cool today will be lame tomorrow, and vice-versa.  There is no way to know what something will be worth 10 years from today.  The 80s are hot right now, but a lot of people in their 20s have never seen Back to the Future or Ghostbusters.  Nor do they care to see them.  Old movies, whatever.  So when their generation takes over, those posters will be relics of the past.  Which is why I come from the standpoint that all of this is worth nothing, or close to nothing at $1.  

No expectations.

In short, pricing trends change constantly and are completely unreliable.  If you are collecting for investment, you are in the wrong hobby.  Or you like risk.

T

[MoviePosterBid.com]

In short, pricing trends change constantly and are completely unreliable.  If you are collecting for investment, you are in the wrong hobby.  Or you like risk.

I pretty much agree with T, especially this last part

collectibles have been touted as investments - wrongly IMO

I sell enjoyment, not investment

[Crazy Vick]

I collect because I like collecting, I spend some of my discretionary income on posters and it brings me happiness.  I don't know exactly why, but it does.  That's as much as I can ask from the hobby (and from life in general).  

I have not stopped buying posters as a new collector over the last year...
This quote made me pause for the first time in 12 months.  Thanks T for putting it so well.

[rumble]

What I learned from selling a part of my collection (over 200 lots so far on eMovie, and counting) is that it is almost completely random! Some posters that were multi-hundred-dollars some years ago, like the Japanese ERASERHEADs, are only worth a fraction now (good thing I paid almost nothing for them to begin with!). Other material seems to have appreciated somewhat consistently, for instance British quads. The higher end, like linenbacked copies of recognizable titles, seems to hold up well in general. There are a few exceptional cases, like this Mexican drug movie poster that just went for $217, and some obscure stuff even I have no idea what it even is that people pay good money for!

I agree that overall posters are worth (almost) nothing, and you can't expect any return on investment. My philosophy was to consign enough that even with a low median price I would make decent money (I conservatively expect an average selling price of $10 and a comission of 50%). There will be a few that sell for several hundred dollars, and many that I only get pennies for, but the average insures I get a good chunk of cash in the end. I will post separately about my experiences when the first payments have come in.

[110x75]

There will be a few that sell for several hundred dollars, and many that I only get pennies for, but the average insures I get a good chunk of cash in the end. I will post separately about my experiences when the first payments have come in.

What we want to know is what posters are you going to buy with that good chunk of cash! 

[jayn_j]

Just so T feels less alone, I agree completely, and I don't sell either.

I collect for enjoyment entirely.  I try to limit what I spend, and I think we have discussed this before.  How can you determine if a poster has increased in value over time, when it is next to impossible to establish a current value?  Identical items sell for large differences in price on the same week at the major auction sites.  An item that sells for $150 may very well sell for $15 3 weeks later at the same site.

[oldposterho]

I agree that the '70s and '80s spike is part of the generational wave, and folks need to be prepared for when they inevitably subside.  Classic films will always do well - and by that I mean hold most of their value - because they are outside of the wave and will always have a "cinema history" value to collectors.  Now whether they'll beat inflation I'll leave to the gods.

Oh, and Lars Erik, I tried, I tried.  Glad I could help out though.  I guess... 

--Peter

[rumble]

Oh, and Lars Erik, I tried, I tried.  Glad I could help out though.  I guess... 

--Peter

Much appreciated. I am sure the Smoking Mitchum went to a good home!

As for that chunk of cash, it will probably go to shipping everything I own from USA to Japan! No new acquisitions until I have a house to put them in!

[mattsw]

I have never sold anything except duplicate lobby cards when I have had a few cards and later acquire a full set, making the first few cards duplicates.  On some I have been pleasantly surprised at what I received.  On others, well, they are still sitting in my closet as no takers on Ebay.  From this thread it sounds like timing is everything, so I will wait a little while and repost them.  What someone was not willing to pay before, maybe another person in two weeks will pay.  Not asking for a lot; just hoping to get some if not all of my money back.

I collect for fun, but also have become somewhat careful that the cards I buy are good enough grade that I hope at least hold value with inflation.  One day the collection will go to my kids.  They are still 9 and 11, and whether either will have any infinity towards movie posters is anyone's guess.  But, if they do not and want to sell them, then I hope they can realize close to what I spent.

[paul waines]

T is a man wiser than his years, the perfect attitude to collecting.