The Box Office Thread

[eatbrie]

First Dark Shadows... and now the $250 million + Battleship, which will earn in the low 30s (another major flop for Universal).  Add The Dictator ($14 mil this weekend) and What to Expect When You're Expecting ($13 mil), and that's 4 potential big hits destroyed by Avengers.

Meanwhile, Avengers will make another $60 mil this weekend, which puts it at $460 mil domestically in 3 weeks and 1.2 billion worldwide.

Crazy.

T

[archie leach]

The only way any of those were potential big hits is if they were actually good films.  Metacritic scores of 55, 40, 59, 43 respectively do not instill confidence. 

If any of them were any good, then they would be doing fine - a $60 million haul for The Avengers is not blocking anyone else from making money.

[eatbrie]

Nobody cares about Metacritic scores.  They are completely irrelevant, except maybe for a few executives.  These are summer movies, not fall award oriented artsy flicks.  There are plenty of "bad" movies doing incredible business during the summer.  What we're talking about here is timing.  The Dictator, for instance, was moved by a week when WB made the mistake of advertizing Dark Shadows as a comedy.  No one in Hollywood expected The Avengers to do so well, and as a result, all the other movies are paying for it.

T

[CSM]

What are some examples of "bad" movies that have done incredible business WITHOUT a built in fan base?

[brude]

What are some examples of "bad" movies that have done incredible business WITHOUT a built in fan base?

Are you saying the AVENGERS is bad, Chris?
I'm seeing it Saturday.

[CSM]

Are you saying the AVENGERS is bad, Chris?
I'm seeing it Saturday.

Not at all Ted.  In fact, it is very good!

My query was in response to Thierry alluding to (essentially) that critics do not matter for the box office.

[eatbrie]

What are some examples of "bad" movies that have done incredible business WITHOUT a built in fan base?

Hmm... Not quite sure I understand your question, since both Dark Shadows and Battleship have a built-in fan base, one from a TV show, the other from a board game...  Oh, and What to Expect When You're Expecting is based on a New York Times best seller.

Everything is based on something else at this point.

But to humor you...

Cowboys and Aliens, The Last Airbender, Night at the Museum, Sherlock Holmes, Fast and Furious... and even these are remotely based on something else.

T

[eatbrie]

My query was in response to Thierry alluding to (essentially) that critics do not matter for the box office.

Chris, summer movies are made for teenagers and teenagers do not care about reviews.  They do not read.  If studios hammer it enough, they will pretty much see everything, as long as they don't go see the same movie 3 times, like they're doing with The Avengers.  Which was my point.  My American nephew has seen 5 times already.  That kind of kills his movie budget.  So no Battleship for him.

[CSM]

Hmm... Not quite sure I understand your question, since both Dark Shadows and Battleship have a built-in fan base, one from a TV show, the other from a board game...  Oh, and What to Expect When You're Expecting is based on a New York Times best seller.

Everything is based on something else at this point.

But to humor you...

Cowboys and Aliens, The Last Airbender, Night at the Museum, Sherlock Holmes, Fast and Furious... and even these are remotely based on something else.

T

I was thinking more along the lines of the Twilight movies.  Terrible reviews but incredible business.

But obviously Twilight is critic proof due to the built in fans and interest <------ this is what I am getting at.

I was asking what movies have had a huge box office with pathetic critic reviews that were one offs or did not stem from a different popular media?  I.e. the "anti-Twilight" 

[CSM]

Chris, summer movies are made for teenagers and teenagers do not care about reviews.  They do not read.  If studios hammer it enough, they will pretty much see everything, as long as they don't go see the same movie 3 times, like they're doing with The Avengers.  Which was my point.  My American nephew has seen 5 times already.  That kind of kills his movie budget.  So no Battleship for him.

Good to know your nephew has so much disposable income

[eatbrie]

He's 15.  When I was 15 living in Paris, I saw 380 movies in 1 year.  I'm not even kidding.  I used to write them down in a notebook.  I still have it.  I probably saw Aliens 10 times.  Ah... the good ol' days.

T

[archie leach]

Nobody cares about Metacritic scores.  They are completely irrelevant, except maybe for a few executives.  These are summer movies, not fall award oriented artsy flicks.  There are plenty of "bad" movies doing incredible business during the summer.  What we're talking about here is timing.  The Dictator, for instance, was moved by a week when WB made the mistake of advertizing Dark Shadows as a comedy.  No one in Hollywood expected The Avengers to do so well, and as a result, all the other movies are paying for it.

I was using the metacritic scores as a simple indiction of quality and you could use any other likability measure that you want - I have a feeling that they would be similar to the metacritic numbers (i.e. lukewarm at best).  Any typical summer movie which also happens to get positive reviews (via critics and/or audience) is much, much more likely to become a hit.

The total box office capacity for a given week in the U.S. is far above the $60 mil Avengers is pulling in this week.  True, timing is not helping the case of these other films, but if any of them were actually any good, then there is plenty of available cash.  The only thing preventing these new films from being successful is that they are not very good, poorly marketed, and/or never had a real audience to begin with...

Anyone who didn't expect The Avengers to be a big hit is a fool.  The last few big comic releases received lukewarm receptions precisely because EVERYONE was waiting for them to get to the point already.  You can also look at it this way, the repeat business for The Avengers has just as much to do with the lack of any real competition as it does with the quality of the film.  Had any of these other films been any good then they would be putting more of a dent into The Avenger's take...

Cowboys and Aliens, The Last Airbender, Night at the Museum, Sherlock Holmes, Fast and Furious...

BTW, The whole point of C&A was that it hit a boatload of built-in audiences (Western, Sci-fi, popular Director, popular leads), The Last Airbender had dual built-ins with being a very popular cartoon series and an M. Night Abomination.  Night at the Museum benefited greatly by being the (only) PG movie of choice during a Christmas holiday season stuffed with rated R releases (no competition and parents had to take the kids somewhere), this also help explain the Alvin & the Chipmunks nightmares.  Sherlock is almost the definition of built-in audience.  F&F was a late summer release with little to no competition, if I remember correctly.

[CSM]

He's 15.  When I was 15 living in Paris, I saw 380 movies in 1 year.  I'm not even kidding.  I used to write them down in a notebook.  I still have it.  I probably saw Aliens 10 times.  Ah... the good ol' days.

T

Did you have 380 different girls attend with you?

[Ari]

once a week was all I could afford as a kid, and once a year is all I can afford as an adult.

[CSM]

once a week was all I could afford as a kid, and once a year is all I can afford as an adult.

Don't worry Ari there is usually only one good movie released per year nowadays...

[eatbrie]

Did you have 380 different girls attend with you?

Also, growing up in Paris is a very unique experience because it is a cinema lover haven.  Not only do you get French movies, US movies and so forth, but you also get tons of re-releases and obscure movies.  For instance, all of the movies screened at the Cannes film festival this year will get released, whether they are from Botswana or Australia, while only a few will get distribution in the US.  I also saw Laura, M, Citizen Kane in a theater.  To this day, old movies get re-released weekly.  I remember seeing 5 different movies in one day, sometimes sneaking from one theater to the next.

It was awesome.  And no, no girls.  My only passions growing up were movies and riding horses.

[eatbrie]

Any typical summer movie which also happens to get positive reviews (via critics and/or audience) is much, much more likely to become a hit.

In the long run, yes, which explains the success of Avengers, but not during its opening weekend.  Opening weekend are critic proof.  Then if the movie happens to be semi-good, adults will pour in.

The total box office capacity for a given week in the U.S. is far above the $60 mil Avengers is pulling in this week.

Of course it is, I am not debating this.  You could probably have 2 100+ movies in the same weekend if the excitement was there.  It has never happened, because studios stay out of each other's path, but it potentially could.  My point is that, at this point in time, a 300/400 mil. Avengers (which is pretty much was pundits had it at) would have grosses in the high 20s, allowing much more coins into Battleship's coffers.  A 60 mil. Avengers going to 500/600 is a different story.  If Battleship had made 50/60, it would have been considered a semi-hit, ending probably at 140. A diminished Avengers would have made it much easier for Battleship to open at these numbers.  Not guaranteed, but easier.  The way it stands, the 250 + mil Battleship (Universal has it at 200, but they're lying), will be lucky if it hits 100, especially with MiB3 around the corner.

Anyone who didn't expect The Avengers to be a big hit is a fool.

There is big hit, and then there is Avengers.  Everyone knew Avengers would be big.  No one predicted it would be this big.

[eatbrie]

Just came in...  Per Variety

After relatively smooth sailing abroad, Universal's "Battleship" has hit some rough water Stateside. Pic earned $9 million at the domestic B.O. Friday and is navigating toward a $25 million opening weekend.

For a film budgeted at a reported $209 million and returning from a $220 million-grossing int'l run, Uni appears to have mitigated the blow, but ripple effects into other sectors for the distributor and its producer Hasbro will be felt. Actioner had a significant P&A spend boasting branded ad partnerships with Coke Zero, Subway, Chevron and others. And low interest will likely harm Hasbro's work in ancillary markets, including a rerelease of the board game, videogames and apparel.

"Battleship's" domestic prospects were sunk by worldwide champ Disney and Marvel's "The Avengers," which earned $15.3 million Friday, bringing its domestic cume to $417.3 million while its global cume sits safely north of $1 billion. "Avengers" is expected to win its third consecutive weekend with a little over $50 million through Sunday.

[CSM]

Their problem really began with the pitch.  

"Know what we should do - make a movie about battleships and call it Battleship and remind everyone it's from Hasbro - makers of Battleship"  "Great idea - here's $200 million!"

 

[jayn_j]

Agree.  My vision of the movie is someone saying G-7, cutting away to an explosion on a battleship and then back to  the other guy saying "hit".  Not likely to plunk down $60 for me and the kids.

[archie leach]

Just came in...  Per Variety

After relatively smooth sailing abroad, Universal's "Battleship" has hit some rough water Stateside. Pic earned $9 million at the domestic B.O. Friday and is navigating toward a $25 million opening weekend.

For a film budgeted at a reported $209 million and returning from a $220 million-grossing int'l run, Uni appears to have mitigated the blow, but ripple effects into other sectors for the distributor and its producer Hasbro will be felt. Actioner had a significant P&A spend boasting branded ad partnerships with Coke Zero, Subway, Chevron and others. And low interest will likely harm Hasbro's work in ancillary markets, including a rerelease of the board game, videogames and apparel.

"Battleship's" domestic prospects were sunk by worldwide champ Disney and Marvel's "The Avengers," which earned $15.3 million Friday, bringing its domestic cume to $417.3 million while its global cume sits safely north of $1 billion. "Avengers" is expected to win its third consecutive weekend with a little over $50 million through Sunday.

And?  Any action/FX heavy POS that is promoted enough will do well overseas.  Battleshit failed here because NO ONE thought it would be worth sitting through and it would be doing similarly with or without The Avengers.   

There is big hit, and then there is Avengers.  Everyone knew Avengers would be big.  No one predicted it would be this big.

The Avengers, directed by Joss Whedon, is pure geek nirvana.  As long as it was reasonably good, the chances were much greater that it would be this big than it wouldn't, particularly considering the exceptionally weak 'competition'.  I have to think that the other studios knew this going in, which is why they are not bringing out their A-game Summer pictures.  MIB 3 is the first to have any reasonable chance to make a dent, but is anyone really interested in seeing another sequel from a terrible film released, what, over 10 years ago?  It will be a fascinating test of Will Smith's star power and will likely turn on the quality of the picture (as determined by audiences and critics)...

[eatbrie]

And?  Any action/FX heavy POS that is promoted enough will do well overseas.  Battleshit failed here because NO ONE thought it would be worth sitting through and it would be doing similarly with or without The Avengers.   

Completely wrong, but you're entitled to your opinion.

T

[archie leach]

Completely wrong, but you're entitled to your opinion.

Battleshit has had terrible buzz from inception - laughable trailers, being based on a board game, lack of any real hook - at least Transformers has a nostalgia factor.  Without The Avengers, Battleshit might have pulled in a tad bit more, but nothing to put it in the 'Hit' category or even the 'not a bomb' that you are claiming.

Why do you think studios are dumping their grade B crap summer movies immediately after a guaranteed hit like The Avengers?  It's so they can give themselves an excuse for under performing other than the poor quality/execution of their own product.  'See the film wasn't total crap, it was just swallowed by a bigger fish'.

[eatbrie]

Since the words of someone who's been working in the Industry for 20 years haven't been able to reach out to you and since arguing is futile, I thought I'd post comments from leading Box office publication and websites. 

Of course, they could all be wrong, given your extensive knowledge on the matter.

Daily Variety:

As it stands, the prospect of a three-figure domestic cume for "Battleship" is all but dead in the water.  "Avengers" gets some credit for that: Disney's mammoth hit cruised to its third consecutive domestic win, dropping just 47% for a weekend take of $55.1 million.

This weekend marks the second in which "Avengers" has wrecked major openings (the other victim was "Dark Shadows"). "Battleship" was expected to gross this weekend $35 million-$40 million -- a paltry projection to begin with for an expensive project.

Hollywood Reporter:

With The Avengers still storming the marketplace, observers knew that Universal and Hasbro's Battleship would come in on the more modest side ($35 million to $40 million), but no one expected it to come in at such a low level after making $226 million overseas.

Boxoffice Mojo:

'Battleship' Drowns Under Weight of 'Avengers' 

In this case, though, the real nail in the coffin was The Avengers—audiences had and continued to turn out in droves to see the legendary superhero team prevent aliens from leveling Manhattan, and Battleship's aliens-at-sea premise really had no chance of competing.

Boxoffice Guru:

Dominating the box office for a third weekend in a row and turning all competitors into casualties of war, The Avengers held on firmly to the number one spot breaking more records in the process.

Audiences in the mood for a large-scale effects-driven action picture had Avengers to see - even if it was for a second time - and Battleship just did not stand out as a must-see film.

Boxoffice.com:

The expensive franchise hopeful based on Hasbro's board game simply didn't appeal to mainstream audiences, especially on the heels of the success of The Avengers.

T

[CSM]

Thierry, to be fair the last two quotes are pointing out both flaws/obstacles that Battleship faced.  The poor showing is not being blamed on Avengers alone...