Author Topic: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....  (Read 2257053 times)

Offline Antoine1973

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #10800 on: November 01, 2022, 06:11:26 PM »
Okie, that original comic art collection you describe sounds incredible, please post some pics when you get a chance!  I keep being tempted to dip my toe in that area of collecting, but haven't made the plunge yet...

Offline Steven11788

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #10801 on: November 01, 2022, 08:11:17 PM »
You know, it's funny, I took a gigantic hit on the stock market since the beginning of year, inflation, Ukraine and all, and I'm being much more cautious with my purchases, but I feel like I'm alone.  I see prices skyrocket on things that were a quarter of the price just 10 years earlier and I'm scratching my head.  I mean, people seem to have a lot of disposable income, which is good I guess, but it doesn't seem to follow the realities of the market and the world at large.

T

Took the words right out of my mouth, I took an awful hit too, I keep looking at the world and nostalgia in general and it is booming. People are SPENDING. I go to lots of conventions and lately talking to vendors and friends;  People are spending. Maybe its the yolo impending doom lifestyle that makes some people spend and forgo the rainy day fund
« Last Edit: November 01, 2022, 08:12:33 PM by Steven11788 »

Offline BwanaDik

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #10802 on: November 02, 2022, 04:10:19 AM »
Great sale yesterday at Bruce's. 

For someone like me who owns a few prints, it's fun to see what people are willing to spend on them.  Jaws, $6,500????  Wow, I spent $60 on mine.  Same with all the others, Moss Star Wars ($4,700), Durieux Rear Window ($3,300), and all the rest.  It makes me feel rich, even if I know it is only temporary and prices will eventually go down.

T

And will burn presumably most of them :)
Never really understood the Mondo trend, I understand the all artistic concept behind it but seeing them selling higher than original theatrical posters is puzzling me...
I can stay poor :p
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Offline crowzilla

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #10803 on: November 06, 2022, 01:13:51 PM »
Never really understood the Mondo trend, I understand the all artistic concept behind it but seeing them selling higher than original theatrical posters is puzzling me...

I think that is the part that is so strange. Almost every other area of collectibles has seen crazy, huge growth in the last two years, especially in the "best of the best" categories, but original theatrical posters have been nearly flat.

Look at the top two items from Emovieposter's last auction. the top sale was a War of the Worlds Style B halfsheet, this is arguably the top sci-fi poster of the 50s (at least as far as US paper goes). It sold for $18,000. But the consignor, purchased it from Emovie more than a decade ago and paid over $20,000.
So the very best 50 sci-fi poster lost 10% in value over a decade in actual dollars, and even more when you consider inflation and other factors.

The second best selling item at Emovie was the Star Wars 24-sheet. This was purchased by the consignor five years ago for $15,500 from Emovie, and now he will have a $1,500 loss when every other area of Star Wars collecting (which is also arguably the strongest segment of the poster market) has seen huge returns. If you had put $15,000 in top Star Wars toys in 2017, you would easily have $50 - 100K worth today.

As a collector, I'm happy to fill in holes in my collection for the same price I thought I would have paid 5-10 years ago. If the Seven Samurai B0 I just purchased had seen the same kind of growth as other hobbies have, I probably would have passed - so it's not just US paper, but paper in general.
Still frustrating to see spectacular growth in nearly all collectible hobbies as posters continue to watch from the sidelines.

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Offline redman

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #10804 on: November 06, 2022, 05:53:33 PM »
^who collects 24 sheets? so what is your point?


^i see this and think SW collectors are nuts and will be forever (along with limited edition print collectors  :))

Offline redman

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #10805 on: November 06, 2022, 06:05:31 PM »
i had never seen this quad before, and my eyes did pop out a bit - so so bad lol

think it only sold for 20 or so but that was still too much

Offline Antoine1973

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #10806 on: November 06, 2022, 08:12:17 PM »
I kinda love that quad actually.  It's so hilariously bad visually, on top of being such a misleading representation of Godard's movie, that it achieves its own unique kind of awesome.

Offline eatbrie

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #10807 on: November 06, 2022, 08:40:15 PM »
^who collects 24 sheets? so what is your point?


^i see this and think SW collectors are nuts and will be forever (along with limited edition print collectors  :))

This bar code collecting makes absolutely zero sense to me.  It's like people who collect mock-ups (aka posters that studios ordered and discarded because they were bad).  Why would you want to collect posters before said posters are chosen or made and where does it end?

A friend of mine told me recently, I have some rolls of blank poster paper from the 70s, I'm going to put them on Ebay, tell them that it is the paper that was used to print the Star Wars posters and retire to the Bahamas.

He's got a point.

T

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Offline eatbrie

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #10808 on: November 06, 2022, 08:42:05 PM »
i had never seen this quad before, and my eyes did pop out a bit - so so bad lol

think it only sold for 20 or so but that was still too much

If it wasn't in such terrible shape, I would spend good money for this.  I think it's great.

T
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- "Wishing you the best of luck with All Poster Forum and in encouraging others to appreciate the magical art of film posters" - Martin Scorsese (2009)

Offline Stefano

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #10809 on: November 06, 2022, 09:49:01 PM »
I think that is the part that is so strange. Almost every other area of collectibles has seen crazy, huge growth in the last two years, especially in the "best of the best" categories, but original theatrical posters have been nearly flat.

Look at the top two items from Emovieposter's last auction. the top sale was a War of the Worlds Style B halfsheet, this is arguably the top sci-fi poster of the 50s (at least as far as US paper goes). It sold for $18,000. But the consignor, purchased it from Emovie more than a decade ago and paid over $20,000.
So the very best 50 sci-fi poster lost 10% in value over a decade in actual dollars, and even more when you consider inflation and other factors.

The second best selling item at Emovie was the Star Wars 24-sheet. This was purchased by the consignor five years ago for $15,500 from Emovie, and now he will have a $1,500 loss when every other area of Star Wars collecting (which is also arguably the strongest segment of the poster market) has seen huge returns. If you had put $15,000 in top Star Wars toys in 2017, you would easily have $50 - 100K worth today.

As a collector, I'm happy to fill in holes in my collection for the same price I thought I would have paid 5-10 years ago. If the Seven Samurai B0 I just purchased had seen the same kind of growth as other hobbies have, I probably would have passed - so it's not just US paper, but paper in general.
Still frustrating to see spectacular growth in nearly all collectible hobbies as posters continue to watch from the sidelines.

Very interesting analysis.  Any thoughts on why this might be the case, or what factors could be at play here?  Were posters simply over-valued in the early 2000s, and now we're seeing a correction?  Is it market saturation?  Do all of the big poster collectors already have most of their Holy Grails?  Or are those other areas of collecting experiencing an influx of new collectors faster than we are over here?  Really curious about what is going on here.

Offline eatbrie

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #10810 on: November 06, 2022, 11:27:42 PM »
Very interesting analysis.  Any thoughts on why this might be the case, or what factors could be at play here?  Were posters simply over-valued in the early 2000s, and now we're seeing a correction?  Is it market saturation?  Do all of the big poster collectors already have most of their Holy Grails?  Or are those other areas of collecting experiencing an influx of new collectors faster than we are over here?  Really curious about what is going on here.

I'm sure there is some truth to that, but as in all things, it is not the entire story.  I have been collecting movie posters for 20 years now (I started in 2001), and believe I have put together a fairly nice collection (at least to me).  I did a little exercise right after HA's last signature auction.  I already owned 84 posters they were selling (I wasn't selling them but I owned them).  I don't mean to be rude by giving numbers out (Mel used to do it and I hated it), but I'm trying to be precise.  I added up the amount those 84 posters sold for ($216,034) and compared it to what I spent on them over the last 20 years ($53,634).  That's almost 4 times what I spent.  Even accounting for inflation, that is still a pretty good markup.

I did the same with the Mondo sale, and fair enough, came up with a total that was close to 10 times what I spent.  But I also bought those at drops and never from secondary markets.  So yes, prints went up way more than posters.  Way.  But to say that posters are flat, imo, is not true.

Personally, I would love nothing more than posters to stay flat or go down in value.  I don't collect to sell so it doesn't matter to me.  But I also know that I have set prices in my head based on yesterday's prices and the new prices are always much higher than what I expect.

T
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- I wish to thank all APF members for being part of the World's Largest Social Gathering of Movie Poster Collectors
- "Wishing you the best of luck with All Poster Forum and in encouraging others to appreciate the magical art of film posters" - Martin Scorsese (2009)

Offline BwanaDik

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #10811 on: November 07, 2022, 07:43:12 AM »
Same, happy if the theatrical poster market stay flat :)
Crowzilla, well say.

Quote
Were posters simply over-valued in the early 2000s, and now we're seeing a correction?  Is it market saturation?  Do all of the big poster collectors already have most of their Holy Grails?  Or are those other areas of collecting experiencing an influx of new collectors faster than we are over here?
Stefano, well sum up.  I think a bit of everything. We will have to be more specific about type of posters to get the answer (e.g. below 20usd poster to three-digits ones).
But yeah, definitely, other collecting have a large influx of collectors and higher interest. 

Mondo people will be hit with a big correction in some years, just like guys buying KAWS in chain.  Mondo and plastic KAWS are mass-made merchandising for the hipsters and alike, they don't see the interest in collecting old stuff that their dad used to talk about/watch :)   Saturation, may be, too many posters around, every week, same stuff...   As for me, I am fine with my eccentric, eclectic, counter-culture small collection.   I usually don't follow the trend and always missed the boat for some fast flipping, it takes dedication anyway to buy and flip.
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Offline Crazy Vick

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #10812 on: November 07, 2022, 10:42:42 PM »
Crowzilla which collectibles have gone through the roof i
the last couple of years  specifically?  Aside from Mondo, of course.  Don't tell me beanie babies are making a comeback!

Offline Stefano

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #10813 on: November 08, 2022, 11:58:52 PM »
Thanks for your perspectives, folks.  I find pricing trends interesting.  Over the years, I've seen the prices of some things go up, some go down, and some stay flat.  But I guess for something to constitute a "trend," we're talking huge sample size over many years - very broad averages.  I like to think T is correct on a general upward trend.  Specific genres might tell a different story, of course. 

But I totally understand the weird feeling of other movie-related collectables taking off around us, seemingly out of nowhere.  Really hate the prospect that "dad's old posters" might be missing out on some love, in favor of new, mass-produced collectables for the hipsters, as BwanaDik suggests.

Offline crowzilla

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #10814 on: November 10, 2022, 07:42:47 PM »
I'm sure there is some truth to that, but as in all things, it is not the entire story.  I have been collecting movie posters for 20 years now (I started in 2001), and believe I have put together a fairly nice collection (at least to me).  I did a little exercise right after HA's last signature auction.  I already owned 84 posters they were selling (I wasn't selling them but I owned them).  I don't mean to be rude by giving numbers out (Mel used to do it and I hated it), but I'm trying to be precise.  I added up the amount those 84 posters sold for ($216,034) and compared it to what I spent on them over the last 20 years ($53,634).  That's almost 4 times what I spent.  Even accounting for inflation, that is still a pretty good markup.

I did the same with the Mondo sale, and fair enough, came up with a total that was close to 10 times what I spent.  But I also bought those at drops and never from secondary markets.  So yes, prints went up way more than posters.  Way.  But to say that posters are flat, imo, is not true....

First - I like the fact that you used an 84-piece sample size instead of a small one, definitely makes it more reliable. But of course even that doesn't tell us a complete picture. This was from a Signature auction, so it should represent more cream-of-the-crop items, and not a bunch of lower-valued items that will weight the return average down. Also, you've always been the king of "someone gave me 14 rolled Revenge of the Jedi one-sheets" type stories, so no idea how many of those type purchases are included in your sample. Plus we have no idea the time period that you spent the money (if you purchased all 84 pieces twenty years ago, you're looking at just over a 6% return a year, not exactly setting the world on fire. If you purchased them all last year and they have increased 4x in a year, kudos to you sir).

And of course in picking a Heritage auction (or any single data point), you might be including sales that would be difficult to replicate. Taking a quick look at their top 20 or so sales from the last auction, I don't think you have any of those pieces, but scanning down at ones you likely do I see a very strong price for Forbidden Planet ($15K, double the recent Bruce price), an incredible price for an ET Bike poster ($6600?!? - is that a new record? That's more than triple the price Bruce got for his in the record-setting Halloween auction), $9900 for a Thunderball six-sheet also seems much higher than normal, $2000 for Raiders of the Lost Ark, etc. I'm going to guess there are probably some on the low side also, but unsure what they would be.

In comparison to the Mondo price increases (10x your investment in a much shorter time frame), it just helps the argument that movie posters lag other collectibles markets (Mondo being more an art market than strictly movie posters, I know several people who buy Mondo items for their collection and as of yet, I haven't been able to convince them to start on "regular" posters - but maybe that is a good thing, less competition.

As to the "why", I have no idea why they seem to be lagging. Heritage certainly seems to be doing a great job in advertising and getting the world out, and people all over the world love movies. Maybe there weren't enough places to source originals years ago, and so it's out of the minds of people now? No "rookie cards", or continuing sets to get? Maybe that is one of the hooks Mondo has, they continue to make posters in the series so people stay interested. The continuing demand of Star Wars seems to be the one thing you can count on right now. I will say that the discovery of fakes in the horror market about a decade ago, rocked that market hard and prices fell for for a few years, and that was always viewed as the bluest of the blue-chips in the poster world. And while I love those posters, I always found it strange that they would command so much more than the Casablancas, Citizen Kanes, and the like. And while 30s-40s horror seems to have stabilized and maybe on the rise again, it looks like the 70s/80s classics are the really hot spot right now (which again comes back to Star Wars).

As to Vick who asked what collectibles have gone through the roof? I'll assume you've been under a rock and didn't see the $10 million dollar Mantle rookie sale, or the plethora of comic books that have shot through the $1 million mark. A Magic the Gathering card recently hit the $500K mark and some Pokemon cards regularly hit six-figures also. I won't mention video games or VHS tapes since we have other threads on those, but we certainly seem a long ways off from any 90s poster hitting the six-figure mark.

Still think that eventually, others will see the awesomeness that we do in vintage posters.
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Offline Crazy Vick

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #10815 on: November 10, 2022, 10:30:10 PM »
 notworthy.gif

Offline Stefano

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #10816 on: November 10, 2022, 11:14:36 PM »
[...] Mondo being more an art market than strictly movie posters, I know several people who buy Mondo items for their collection and as of yet, I haven't been able to convince them to start on "regular" posters [...]

That's the strange part for me.  For collectors of art and cinema, movie posters seem like a no-brainer.  Maybe they don't think they can afford to get into movie poster collecting?  On the other hand, maybe they'd feel like they're slumming it with all of us "lowly" movie poster collectables, haha. 

[...]
Still think that eventually, others will see the awesomeness that we do in vintage posters.

I hope so. There's just seriously something so irresistible about owning a piece of a beloved movie's marketing history, contemporaneous to when the film was originally released.  I can't understand how people don't think that's cool.  Well, I'll just hope they get the bug for it eventually.

Offline crowzilla

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #10817 on: November 11, 2022, 02:38:19 AM »
  I can't understand how people don't think that's cool.  Well, I'll just hope they get the bug for it eventually.

Me too - only I want them to do it if I ever sell something, not do it and compete against me when buying.  ;D
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Offline Antoine1973

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #10818 on: November 11, 2022, 03:48:10 AM »
You make some interesting points, Crow.

Online Tob

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #10819 on: November 11, 2022, 04:44:01 AM »
Yeah, a very interesting discussion, a nice read with my morning cup of tea. A crude bit of analysis, but I've always thought the size of movie posters perhaps puts off budding collectors - for beginners, they can be quite tricky to handle and store (compared to collectible cards, for example, which can also be graded and entombed in plastic etc). Having said that, at the low end where I shop, it feels like there are a lot more collectors in the UK these days, the market for quads is pretty competitive compared to how it was 10 years ago.

Mondo and plastic KAWS are mass-made merchandising for the hipsters and alike, they don't see the interest in collecting old stuff that their dad used to talk about/watch :)

I think you're right (although Mondo and Kaws have both gone beyond hipsters), but the collectors don't see the Mondo prints as mass made merchandising...the opposite in fact, like an artisan product - illustrated by an artist, screen printed by hand, limited in quantity - it has an allure for them which a mass produced movie poster used for advertising does not. I agree with Crow about it being more related to collectors who like art prints, than movie posters.

Offline Stefano

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #10820 on: November 11, 2022, 11:21:55 PM »
[...] but I've always thought the size of movie posters perhaps puts off budding collectors - for beginners, they can be quite tricky to handle and store (compared to collectible cards, for example, which can also be graded and entombed in plastic etc). Having said that, at the low end where I shop, it feels like there are a lot more collectors in the UK these days, the market for quads is pretty competitive compared to how it was 10 years ago.

That's why I like Belgians.  They easily store flat in a dresser drawer, along with lobbies and stills.  Easier to frame, if I ever want to display them, too.  Honestly, there are so many different types and sizes of posters to choose from.  There should be something for all tastes.

Quads seem to be holding their value quite well, from what I've seen (also on the lower end).  I don't know if it's a supply issue (there are surely fewer quads than US 1-sheets in most cases).  I'm a fan of Hammer posters, and the quad prices for those have really soared in recent years.  I'm glad they're too big for my dresser drawer, as most of those are right out of my budget.   

Offline Antoine1973

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #10821 on: November 12, 2022, 10:42:48 PM »
Good point about quads, particularly the Hammer ones which certainly only seem to accrue in value over the years.

Offline porkinsred6

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #10822 on: November 18, 2022, 07:11:55 PM »
This bar code collecting makes absolutely zero sense to me.  It's like people who collect mock-ups (aka posters that studios ordered and discarded because they were bad).  Why would you want to collect posters before said posters are chosen or made and where does it end?

I was the winner of that Happy Brithday print. Star wars collecting might be unique in that there is so much emphasis on not only collecting what was released but also anything that was used towards making the final product. This unusual desire can probably be traced back to the infamous Rocket Firing Boba Fett action  figure that was pulled at the last minute due to safety concerns but many prototypes exists and is the most coveted star wars collectible toy. Not only are those toys in great demand but any paperwork or documentation on the testing and safety procedures that were performed on them  which led to its failing grade are also worth a lot of money.


What was this poster and does it reveal anything new we didn't know about the behind the scenes history of star wars?
This is the same size as the Concert Poster. Why did they print a happy birthday at that size? Was it just because they had the paper handy and the important part of the image would fit so who cares for a test print? Was this image originally intended to be a smaller size? Maybe to sell or hand out at theaters? Don't know.. but I hope I can research and find out- that's part of the fun

Offline eatbrie

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #10823 on: November 19, 2022, 07:11:53 PM »
It seems to me that people are finally catching on the idea that linen sucks!!!  That makes me happy, bc there is way too much of it out there.

This being said, I missed out on everything.  It never happened before.  I was the runner up on the 2001 style C but figured $10,000 was too much for it.  Still very upsetting.  Oh well, there will always be spring.

T
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Offline Charlie

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Re: Post-auction analysis - OMGs!, LOLs!, WTFs!, whatev....
« Reply #10824 on: November 19, 2022, 07:34:43 PM »
Once again missed on Mad Max Purple OS. Could not justify $7K Oh well probably pick it up in 10 years for $10K lol Seems like I have a clone out there bidding on the posters I want. Everything pretty much went under upper range and Max Max purple went over double max range.